Analysis – 23 January 2021

Values are stabilising, vaccinations are picking up but new variants add an unknown
Projections look very positive for the coming four months but decrease will be slow
NOTE: I have extended the graphs until September. Since this squeezed the data points, I removed the daily positive and death values, leaving only the 7-day average curve.

Daily positive values are decreasing or stalling in all countries with the exception of France and Brazil. Test positive rates are coming down, as are the R-values, which are other good indicators. Also, the case fatality ratios, that had been growing in Germany and Tunisia, have turned around, which is another, if not small, positive signal. With the U.S. now getting a comprehensive Corona plan, it is conceivable that numbers will come down for good.

Daily deaths are decreasing in Germany, stalling in New York State and Sweden and growing in all other countries, in Britain very steeply so and at an alarmingly high level. But these values are soon to fall.
Death projections are falling all over the board. Some countries start their decrease now (Germany) but most will see the decline by mid February. Until then, death numbers will either increase a little or stall.

So, while all countries will see a decrease in death numbers by June, some drops are projected to be steeper than others. Germany, France, Brazil, the U.S. minus 3 and California could remain above or barely touch the 0.1 per 100 000 daily deaths line and the population is more likely to stay alert. In countries where the death toll falls way below that threshold, last summer has shown that people will become less careful, which will counteract the effects of the vaccine. Since all these countries vaccinate their oldest first, this means that daily incidence could flare up again.

In the case of Brazil, this is the first accurate IHME update because it matches the news and data I receive from the country. Not surprisingly, owing to a president denying reality, daily deaths are projected to remain high throughout summer.

Tunisia is going to start their vaccination earlier than originally planned but they will use the Russian Sputnik vaccine.  Brazil has just started their vaccination too, also not using any of the RNA vaccines. All other countries (except for New Zealand, which can allow itself a little more time) have started to vaccinate their populations with an RNA vaccine, which has very high efficacy. Unfortunately, production capacity is severely lacking demand. I expect Israel getting a beating from the EU because their vaccine is allegedly produced in Belgium. If this were true, Israel's current 30% success would be achieved on the back of EU nationals.
The U.S. does not provide per-State vaccination data yet.