Analysis – 16 January 2021

Values are up as predicted but not as much as feared before the holidays
The new, more proliferative variants of the virus keep numbers high against all predictions but they will ultimately go down, however with a delay.

Projections by IHME are back! They all point to lower numbers by May, but they probably do not take into account the new, more proliferative virus variants. This means that, yes, there is a way out of it, but it might be akin to a walk through quicksand. 

The projection of fatalities now reaches until late April with two distinct groups forming: those with daily death values coming down fast and those who will take longer. 
The U.S. (minus New York State) and Tunisia will take longer while the European countries are projected to cut their deaths faster. In the U.S. (minus NY) this is owed to the destruction of federal institutions by the Trump government. In Tunisia it is the lack of a vaccine and it stands as an example of many countries with low GDP. 

And here is a good idea: Seattle restaurants can reopen if they provide ventilation to keep CO2 levels below 450 ppm and the already-known 25% seating capacity. Having a CO2 meter in my home I know for certain that this means constant ventilation at rather high speed. But I'd rather dine out in a windstorm with two friends than dine alone at home. And no, small restaurants might not be able to foot the upfront cost. But yes, it is a still a good idea and it could be extended to cultural venues.