Values are normalising but still not reflecting reality
The graph below explains how deep the holiday drop in numbers is. Perhaps it helps understand why IHME has not updated their prediction yet and why commenting on the numbers would be premature.
After the holiday dip, numbers are rising in most countries, including the R values and test positive rates. I left the old predictions from 23 December on the graphs because, assuming that they were correct, they show how far away each country and state is from catching up.
Remarkable and not something the daily news sources would show: Germany and Britain have higher 7-day average daily mortalities than any other nation in this blog.
France and Sweden have now joined the vaccination graph.
NEW in the table and graph: average excess mortality, which is calculated as the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 divided by the average number of deaths per year. There are huge differences between the countries. With roughly 5%, Germany is one of the lowest, while New York State, with 23%, has the highest.
The graph on the left shows the extent by which daily incidence (red) and daily deaths (grey) dipped after the two most important holidays in the U.S.
It further shows that it is hard to predict by how much more future numbers will rise before they reflect reality.
| Daily Infections | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | R value | Average Excess Death | Late March Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 21.3 ↗︎ | 0.411 ↗︎ | 16.7% | ↘︎ | ||
| US minus 3 | 72.6 ↗︎ | 0.894 ↗︎ | 15.2% ↑ | 1.07 → | 13.8% | ↑↘︎ |
| California | 99.8 → | 0.982 ↑ | 14.0% ↑ | 1.07 ↑ | 11.5% | ⬆︎↘︎ |
| Washington | 32.4 ↗︎ | 0.392 ↗︎ | 11.5% ↑ | 1.13 ↑ | 08.3% | ⬆︎↘︎ |
| New York | 76.0 ↗︎ | 0.823 ↗︎ | 07.9% ↗︎ | 1.14 → | 23.0% | ↗︎↘︎ |
| France | 22.9 ↗︎ | 0.568 ↗︎ | 06.0% ↑ | 0.99 ↗︎ | 14.2% | ↘︎ |
| Britain | 87.4 ↑ | 1.201 ↑ | 11.6% ↗︎ | 1.20 → | 14.7% | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 15.8 ↗︎ | 0.453 ↗︎ | 30.3% ↑ | 1.08 → | 08.3% | →↘︎ |
| Sweden | 60.6 ↑ | 0.897 ↗︎ | 16.9% → | 1.37 ↘︎ | 11.7% | ↑↘︎ |
| Germany | 23.4 → | 1.017 ↑ | 13.7% ↗︎ | 1.09 ↑ | 04.8% | ↗︎→ |
| New Zealand | 00.0 → | 0.000 → | 00.0% ↗︎ | 1.12 ↓ | 00.1% | → |
| Rhein-Neckar | 17.7 ↘︎ | 0.562 ↘︎ | 05.2% |
There is a new paper (PDF) showing that, based on numbers from 41 countries between January and May 2020, closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably.
So school closing is right up there with the other limits most countries have imposed. This means that, as I have been insinuating all along, the young people in educational institutions have been passing the virus among themselves while mostly not showing symptoms. These young people then infect their parents and grandparents and the rest is known.
Now that it is clear where the latest, rapid, upswing in deaths came from, we should probably change our vaccination priorities, away from the old towards the young. The older population can easily restrict their lives for a few months longer but the young ones, in the prime of their lives, cannot. And has proven all summer long that they are unable to do so.
This would lead to an immediate decrease of the incidence rate and will indirectly protect the most vulnerable population.
Vaccinating school children and university students could in theory achieved more rapidly than vaccinating the old because there is no need for vaccination centres to be built: educational institutions are just waiting to be used for this. Additionally, vaccination could be made almost compulsory by allowing only vaccinated people to attend school.
By vaccinating the older population first, as most countries are currently doing, incidence will keep growing throughout the year and will keep inflicting havoc on those older ones that have not yet been vaccinated or are unable to or refuse to do so or have reduced immune response.
