Too good to be true
Due to the Christmas holidays, numbers in all but one of the countries in this blog will be underreported and thus look better than they probably are.
The long treck to normality continues even if current (rather good) numbers will see a double damper when (a) correct number reporting resumes after the new year and (b) the Christmas infections will make themselves known.
People and businesses will be able to hold back until early next year but pressure will mount to ease restrictions or not further tighten them. This will more or less coincide with the time when the curves in most countries will do their final turn for the better. Germany will probably be last, as it is the only country without a down-facing arrow in the projection of the summary table below.
| Daily Infections | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | R value | Late March Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 019.4 ↗︎ | 0.328 ↗︎ | ↘︎ ? | ||
| US minus 3 | 050.7 ↘︎ | 0.753 → | 09.2% ↘︎ | 1.03 → | ↑↘︎ |
| California | 100.5 ↑ | 0.646 ↑ | 11.9% ↘︎ | 1.08 ↘︎ | ⬆︎↘︎ |
| Washington | 029.8 ↘︎ | 0.126 ↗︎ | 08.1% ↓ | 0.94 → | ⬆︎↘︎ |
| New York | 055.5 ↗︎ | 0.680 ↗︎ | 05.5% ↗︎ | 1.03 ↘︎ | ↗︎↘︎ |
| France | 022.3 ↗︎ | 0.468 → | 03.4% ↓ | 1.16 ↑ | ↘︎ |
| Britain | 053.0 ↑ | 0.701 ↗︎ | 07.7% ↑ | 1.20 ↗︎ | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 013.2 ↗︎ | 0.355 → | 24.4% ↗︎ | 1.09 | →↘︎ |
| Sweden | 067.1 ↗︎ | 0.675 ↗︎ | 17.0% ↗︎ | 1.42 → | ↑↘︎ |
| Germany | 026.8 ↗︎ | 0.650 ↗︎ | 11.2% ↗︎ | 0.97 ↘︎ | ↗︎→ |
| New Zealand | 000.0 → | 0.000 → | 00.0% ↗︎ | 1.29 | → |
| Rhein-Neckar | 026.2 ↗︎ | 0.685 → |
As the worst-hit countries of the West are slowly turning their curves for the better, I hear people already making holiday plans for the summer. Cautiously though, because we have been burnt too often by false hope.
And correctly so.
I was a little shocked to find out that, as a person with asthma, I am only in vaccination group 3 out of 4, which means that my shots are due at some time in spring. Groups 1+2 are the elderly, people with severe diseases and care personnel and they are vaccinated first. Group 4 is last and contains the majority of the population in Germany, which gives an inkling of an idea of how long this vaccination effort might take. The Teutons will probably be champions if they were to reach herd immunity by the end of 2021.
Masks will remain an accessory throughout the year and maybe we will take on the East Asian habit of wearing them when we have a cold. And kisses on the cheek will maybe never see a comeback. We have seen pictures of people in discotheques in China but they have a great way of tracing their infected, as do most Pacific Eastern countries. Infection tracing does not work very well in Europe and it does not work at all in most of the U.S. It is therefore hard to predict when big gatherings of people will be permissible again. Or people go dancing anyway and the numbers will remain on a relatively high level for months to come.
I must ask myself to remain patient.
This is probably going to be hard.