Analysis – 21 November 2020

Goodbye Lotus Flower, Hello Kiwi
People had a hard time believing numbers coming out of China. They kept saying that they look too good to be true. I therefore decided to use New Zealand as the near-perfect example of good performance and I express my sincere hope that we shall learn and get prepared for the next pandemic. Because natural disasters are the consequence of our (meaning: the rich nations) exploitation of our planet and we will pay the price for it for generations to come.
But when it comes to replicating their success story, people interject that New Zealand had it easy because they are an island with just a few ports to supervise. But even if it is harder to control land borders, it is not as if vacationers would walk back across the green border but they use a manageable number of motorway and train crossings (and airports). Europe should not have let their folks leave on holiday in the first place. And there should have been a mandatory 2-week quarantine at government-paid locations for returning nationals, like the Kiwis still do. Harsh? Yeah  Effective? Duh.

The summary below is also for people in countries that are commonly labelled as having high numbers. These people should know: their situation is not as bad as it still is portrayed in the press. Because the leading Western country is the small Austria.
And New York City is orange in a sea of red. Well done, city dwellers. The opposite is actually true for Berlin, the place where egotists were celebrating in bars right up to lockdown 2. Poorly done, Berliners (and Parisians but not Londoners, there seems to be no pattern here).

France is doing much better than their own press might make them believe. Germany on the other hand will have it really bad and the press is not talking about it. 

The U.S. is in for a hard month, especially Washington and California (and other states that are not on my list). But there is light at the end of the tunnel and with a new administration that light could shine even brighter.

As to the vaccine, I am cautiously optimistic. But why did we slam the Russians if we are now doing exactly the same? The current vaccine candidates have not been tested the way they should have (i.e. for many more months followed by a thorough analysis) and should there be complications, not only this vaccine program would be in grave danger garnering enough volunteers but future vaccine programs as well with a rise in diseases we thought eliminated.
But there is more: For the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines we only assume that they give more than 3 months of protection. We do not know for sure because we have not tested them long enough. Thus, in the worst case, protection would wean after three months and a booster would be required at a time when the majority of the population is still being vaccinated. A logistical nightmare. And scientific testing for a booster vaccination has not even been performed. The good news are, however, that, if these vaccines were to trigger a T-cell response, chances are high that protection could last at least six months (partially paywalled link).
In any way, governments must not only devise plans on how to perform the daunting task of vaccinating millions in a short time but also how to convince their people that restrictions must remain in place until the epidemiological data give them the green light.