Analysis – 7 November 2020

The Good: Britain and Tunisia are turning around, France is slowing down, Germany maybe too. The Bad: Sweden is still catching up.
The Ugly: In the US, every day is a record high.
French deaths are increasing while moving into dangerous territory. Germany will soon follow. Tunisia is already there but deaths are slated to spike in late December. US deaths will soon spike and triaging has already returned in some states.

Compared to March and April, where fatalities lagged positives by about three weeks, this time the lag is six weeks or more. The virus is probably passed on with a delay from the predominantly younger infected to the older and at-risk population. 

Therefore, although Tunisia and Britain see a turnaround in new positives, they will not see an immediate easing on their health care systems. Their death numbers are predicted to keep rising to levels seen at the first peak.

I was curious about the district I currently reside in, the Rhein-Neckar-Kreis (RNK). With a population of half a million, RNK has a higher 7-day average death number than Germany, which spurs me to exert extra caution when out and about. 

Brazil is having a data issue and hence numbers are two days behind (4 November). But numbers keep declining nicely, albeit very slowly so.

Germany has seen two data reporting issues as well but they are now on track. Like in France, the lockdown might have had a small effect already: R-values are lower (in Germany even below 1) and the daily positives might be spiking, in France in particular but in Germany too, incidence numbers are flattening.