Analysis – 24 October 2020

In the West, staring at the tsunami
Too difficult to emigrate to New Zealand, so I will stay put in small-town Germany

Hopeful: Britain and Tunisia might have reached a peak in new infections but the following days will show if this is indeed true. Their daily deaths, however, continue to increase with a British surge to April numbers projected for December and an unprecedented peak projected for Tunisia in January with up to 100 daily deaths.
New York State had numbers increase after months of hovering around the same, too high, average but for the winter, numbers are projected to increase just a little.
China, has so little cases, and with it most Pacific-East nations, that it feels almost like a hoax to somebody living in a Western nation.

Doubtful: Germany won't be able to stay behind its neighbours for much longer. Like in other countries, the rate of infection in the elderly population is increasing, which is a precursor to an accelerated death rate, which in turn is projected to happen in the winter.
Brazil's nice decline in numbers has been interrupted for a few days before and we need to see if the flattening of daily infections is permanent. According to the projection, however, numbers should be on a downward slope soon again.
California, too, seems to see a reversal of the nice month-long decline. Unlike Brazil, daily death numbers are projected to rise again and to surpass the August peak.
Washington State is, as so often, undecided. Right now, things look as if they were going for the better but the projection is for worse.
Sweden is at the low end in Europe, but it feels as if it were just a few weeks behind Germany. Interestingly, the projection could be good for the winter if, and only if, personal distancing and mask wearing measures were to be tightened, which would be a deviation from the course Sweden has become famous for. Because otherwise, deaths could spike to the same dreadful level as in April.

Dreadful: France's numbers are increasing incessantly but a peak is projected before year end.
The U.S. (minus 3) has still more daily deaths than France but the increase is less steep, as is the increase in daily infections. But unlike France, there is little chance that the numbers will ease any time soon. Even with a change in politics, the demographics (lots of poor people who cannot properly shield themselves from the virus) paired with the stubbornness of large parts of the population speak against it.