Winter is coming and we have not learnt much from the Spring.
Infections are rising beyond the first peak and fatalities, while currently rather low for a number of good reasons, will ultimately rebound to levels unseen.
Brazil has the worst numbers (well, together with the US) but it is the only country in my list that will not be affected by the winter rise. Numbers continue their slow but steady decline. Daily infections decreased from 16 to 15.2 per 100K and daily deaths from 0.398 to 0.347. The percentage of positive tests rose a little from 45% to 50%.
Outlook: Very Bad Getting Better
U.S. minus CA,NY,WA: The time of decreasing numbers is over. Infections have been on the rise for two weeks now and fatalities will follow soon, probably in a week. In particular, daily infections increased from 16.9 to 18.8 per 100K and daily deaths fell from 0.284 to 0.278. R-value (1.03) and daily positive rate (5.8%) were higher too.
Outlook: Very Bad Getting Worse
California's downward trend seems to have come to a halt as well. Daily infections are trending flat and daily fatalities, which have never been really going down, are even trending up. In particular, daily infections increased from 6.2 to 8.6 per 100K and daily deaths from 0.134 to 0.212. The R-value increased, too, from 0.86 to 0.94 but the positive testing rate remained unchanged at 2.8%. The risk map might have to catch up because it was mildly positive, with more counties going for the better than for the worse. But one county went red again after several days of absence of this worse colour.
Outlook: Bad With Concern
Washington, too, seems to reverse for the worse. Daily infections increased from 4.6 to 7 per 100K while daily deaths fell from 0.079 to 0.053 but trending flat. The R-value (1.02) and the daily positive rate (still a good 3.4%) were up too. The risk map remained a mixed bag with one Eastern county going green and keeping the three red ones.
Outlook: Bad With Concern
France might have slowed down the increase but numbers keep rising. Daily infections jumped from 15 to 23.6 per 100K and daily deaths from 0.116 to 0.224 and both with a dangerously steep upward trend. The R-value from 10 days ago dropped to an inexplicable 1.06 while nearly 60% of all Départements are at highest risk. The question is not if a renewed lockdown will come but when.
Outlook: Very Bad Getting Worse
United Kingdom: Daily infections made a big leap from 7.3 to 10.1 per 100K while daily deaths fell from 0.055 to 0.043 but with a very steep upward trend. The R-value rose to 1.35 and daily positive tests rose to a still good 2%.
Outlook: Bad Getting Worse
Tunisia is now 5 days behind in number reporting and numbers are moving into uncharted, record high territory. Daily infections eased a little from 10.4 to 9.3 per 100K but trending up steeply. Daily deaths increased from 0.085 to 0.094, thus venturing into dangerous territory for a fragile health care system. The daily positive rate inched up from 14% to 21%, which is indicative of a big strain on the testing capacity.
Outlook: Bad Getting Worse
New York may finally have left the two months of "same as usual" to aim for something higher. Daily infections increased from 3.9 to 4.7 per 100K, trending up, and daily death numbers increased from 0.021 to 0.036, while still trending down. The risk map saw more counties going for the worse than for the better.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: All that partying in Berlin is finally paying off as the city is now number 1, with Hamburg on its tail and Bavaria finally retreating to the lower ranks. But this second showing of the pandemic's ugly face is relentless, if not a little slower than in France or the UK. And Germany seems ill prepared for it. In particular, daily infections increased from 2.1 to 3 per 100K while daily death numbers remained low, falling from 0.016 to 0.011. The daily test positivity increased to 1.1% and the R-value rose above 1 again. The risk map also shows more orange and red districts than ever before.
Outlook: Satisfactory Getting Worse
It is now painfully clear that something went wrong in Europe and other countries. Weeks of lockdown and billions of Euros seemed to have been wasted because politicians gave in to business leaders and the people demanding their old lives back. But there is actually a script for the phase following the lockdown. Unfortunately, it came out only now. But had it come out in July, I am not sure politicians would have read it.
An article in the Lancet found 5 prerequisites for easing Covid-19 measures:
1. Knowledge of infection status
Indicators to monitor the epidemiological situation.
2. Community engagement
Safe policies for physical distancing and mask wearing.
Precautionary measures in schools and workplaces.
Communication to secure public trust and cooperation.
Protecting vulnerable populations.
Providing socioeconomic support.
3. Adequate public health capacity
Testing, tracing, and isolating.
Role of experts.
4. Adequate health system capacity
Treatment facilities.
Medical equipment.
Health-care workforce.
5. Border controls
Inbound travel restrictions.
You can see yourself how many of these criteria are fulfilled in your country or state. And if your politicians were relaxing lockdown measures prematurely, then you know whom you will not vote for in the next election.
Germany had few inbound travel restrictions and, no surprise, a month ago, 50% of new infections came from abroad.
Some countries have difficulties with number gathering. The R-value in France is a joke and they had to revise their numbers twice. Britain is not better and Washington State is currently having issues.
Public trust and cooperation is hard to be had when large parts of the population live in an alternative universe spurred on my social media.
And the role of experts, well, in the U.S., let's not get there.