U.S. reverting to bad, CA great, WA go!, NY meh, FR, GB and TN bad, DE ok?,
I extended the graphs until May 2021. It shall serve as a reminder that the pandemic will in no way abate before then. I also rearranged the countries/states based on a combination of the last three weeks of daily death and infection values with emphasis given on the deaths.
Brazil: New numbers have not changed much from 3 days ago. Daily infections increased a little from 17.4 to 18.9 per 100K and daily deaths fell from 0.530 to 0.408. When zooming out and squinting the eyes, both daily numbers remain on a steady but slow downward trajectory that remains extremely fragile.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
U.S. minus CA,NY,WA: Things are turning for the worse again. Daily infections increased from 13.4 to 15.8 per 100K and daily deaths fell from 0.335 to 0.295. Both numbers are trending up after a month of continued trending down. The R-value was an OK 1.03 and slightly up. Daily positive test rate dropped from 7.1% to 3.8%, which is very good and owed to the quadrupling of the daily tests performed. The risk map showed six states going for the worse and only one for the better.
Outlook: Very Bad
California's daily infections continue to trend downwards in spite of an increase from 5.7 to 9.2 per 100K. Daily deaths rose from 0.167 to 0.230, as predicted three days ago. The R-value slightly up to 0.92 and the positive testing rate was unchanged. The risk map showed 13 counties going for the better and only two for the worse and leaving only one red county. California is on the right track but it is time for fatalities to come down
Outlook: Bad With Hope
Washington's daily infections increased from 4.3 to 5.3 per 100K, yet still continuing its slow decline. Daily deaths remained at a low 0.079 with a declining two-month trendline (the usual 3-week trend is not useful due to the huge daily ups and downs). The R-value remained unchanged at 1.03 and the the daily positive rate went from 2.8% to 2.9%, which is a good range to be in. The risk map, however, saw changes in only two four counties, which went for the worse. If this trend continues, Washington will join the ranks of New York State.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
France: Daily infections increased from 11.7 to a new record-high 19.7 per 100K and daily deaths rose from 0.073 to 0.230. Both numbers are alarming! The infections are even higher than Brazil's. The French government is trying, at all cost, to avoid another lockdown while large parts of the population seem unconcerned. The daily positive rate remained at 5.4% but should increase soon. The R-value was not calculated anew and remained thus at 1.19. It should be significantly higher though. The risk map saw, again, nine Départements going for the worse and none for the better, with now 45% of France at the highest risk level.
Outlook: Very Bad Going Worse
United Kingdom: Daily infections increased from 4.6 to 6.4 per 100K, while daily death numbers remained at 0.040. Both numbers are on a steep upward trend and local lockdowns are being discussed. The R-value increased to 1.25 and daily positive tests remained at 1.4%.
Outlook: Bad Going Worse
New York: no surprise here. Daily infections fell from 3.9 to 4.1 per 100K, with the usual trendline hovering around the horizontal. Daily death numbers fell from 0.057 to 0.051, which sticks out from the graph but is not dangerous if it does not climb. The risk map added two counties in orange but otherwise nothing alarming (or good).
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Tunisia's daily infections increased from 2.1 to 4.6 per 100K, keeping well below the record high of 6.4 per 100K four days earlier. Daily deaths decreased from 0.051 to 0.043, also keeping way below the record high of 0.094 four days earlier. The daily positive rate inched up from 12.7% to 13%. The first younger patients are dying, most recently a woman in her late 30s.
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse
Germany: Daily infections rose from 2.3 to 2.8 per 100K, a 5-month high. The new cases are evenly distributed across Germany and they have definitely arrived in the East that had been largely spared. The daily death numbers remained very low at 0.007. The daily test positivity remained 0.9% for weeks, demonstrating that Germany is doing sufficient testing. The R-value jumped from 1.00 to 1.21, which should serve as a warning that this is not a time to open football stadiums to spectators, as many as 10 000 in Dortmund. A recurring theme during this pandemic: economy vs. health.
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse
On 5 September, CNN published a commentary by William Haseltine, PhD, on an approach to the Covid-19 problem that summarises thoughts I had been harbouring myself, and extends on them.
In essence, the current problem with containing the disease is not knowing if one is infected or if not. By not knowing, everybody has to assume that she or he is infected and approach other people accordingly. Or not. And the latter is the big problem. Because we do not really know how much of our social life we can turn off to keep others safe. Therefore some people err on the safe side (and have no social life) and some err on the selfish side (and have a social life).
What if we had a home test that could be administered every three days? And how much would that cost us?
The author argues that within three months, the US could bring infection numbers down for a cost of just $5 billion. For comparison: The current crisis has cost the US more than $2000 billion and has lasted for over 6 months.
Should above link not work, I have prepared a PDF of the article.