The Americas on a hiatus, France going through the roof, Europe: ooff.
Note: I am no longer displaying the number of recovered people because they were very incomplete and incorrect, and because they do not really add to the picture.
Brazil's numbers are increasing again with a trend for a steeper increase. Accordingly, daily infections rose from 20.3 to 24.4 per 100K. Given the increased number of states going for the better, it is possible that this upward trend is only short lived, which is also in the IHME prediction. In any way, the country will have do deal with a very high number of infections for months to come. Daily deaths fell from 0.565 to 0.432, giving off the impression as they would want to neither go up nor down.
Outlook: Very Bad With Some Hope
U.S. minus CA,NY,WA: Like in Brazil, the nice but slow downward trend of new infections was interrupted. Number seem to increase again, trending no longer down but sideways. Daily infections rose from 14 to 16.8 per 100K and daily deaths went down a little from 0.343 at 0.305. The R-value went above 1 but daily positive tests remained largely unchanged. Also soothing: the risk map had only one state change, and that was for the better. Just as I hinted at on 12 July, the worst development is moving to the poorer states of the US that happen to lean Republican.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California is still on track but new infections have risen from 9.4 to 13 per 100K, but keeping the nice downward trend. Daily deaths increased from 0.215 to 0.413 and thus remained within the very wide corridor the numbers have set in past months. The R-value was below 1 but inched higher to 0.94 and the risk map's red tint is disappearing, with more counties going for the better than for the worse.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington continues its downward trend, even though daily infections rose from 4.1 to 6.3 per 100K. Daily deaths remained at 0.131, and nobody can predict where they might want to go, but remaining too high for months now. The R-value increased to 0.99, still below 1 but not too good. The daily positive rate sunk to a whoppingly low 2.9 ! The risk map, what a joy, showed less red, more green and more counties going for the better than for the worse.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
France reached a new all-time high with daily infections rising from 7.4 to 13.4 per 100K. They are now surpassing the first peak from late March. Daily deaths remained in an OK range, if not a tad too high and with a tendency to go higher: they fell from 0.039 to 0.028. The daily positive rate had been increasing for five weeks, now at 4.5%. The R-value fell for the first time in many weeks, from 1.38 to a still to high 1.29. The risk map was changed to a 3-colour map by France Santé and hence there is no comparison possible yet. Two Départements went to the highest risk and some might have gone to lower risk.
Outlook: Bad Going Worse
New York: Daily infections rose from 3.9 to 4.4 per 100K. This pushed the trendline up for the first time in weeks. I hope that this is just the spur of the moment and not the beginning of something sinister. Daily death numbers rose from 0.012 to 0.026, seemingly getting comfortable in the in-between (good German death numbers and bad Washington ones). The risk map had counties change allegiances with always two orange ones thrown in the mix, but the five Boroughs of New York City remain staunchly yellow.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
United Kingdom: Maybe the bad development the press has been talking about is only now to manifest in the numbers. Daily infections rose from 1.9 to 2.9 per 100K, trending up more steeply. Daily deaths rose from 0.004 to 0.015, which is still very low. R-value and daily positive tests continued to look good. I am curious to see if there is a continued trend up in both numbers. If the were to remain in this corridor, they are probably manageable given the country's capabilities.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany may have passed the second peak but numbers are increasing again, slowly though, in spite of more counties going for the better than for the worse. Bavaria has been hardest hit from the onset and still is, which is the more tragic since it's minister president has been constantly on the news bragging, like a silverback pounding its chest, about how well they were doing. This state also has seen, and still sees, huge delays in reporting of testing results to the infected.
Germany as a whole has fared pretty well for such a big and densely populated country, owing, in part at least, to the typical German discipline and the peoples' support of government actions. Contrary to what is seen in the United States and other countries (and contrary to CNN's assessment of the situation), populism is on the decline, which is testimony to the maturity of the German democracy.
Daily infections rose from 1.5 to 1.6 per 100K and trending up more steeply than three days before. The daily death number fell from a low 0.013 to a very low 0.002, which has many reasons, one being the increase of the young among the infected (who don't get sick as much as the old) and the other the increase of people without symptoms who test positive at the borders who would not have been detected during the buildup to the first peak. The R-value remained below 1 but rose to 0.94 and the risk map showed many more counties going for the better than for the worse, particularly in rural areas, of which there are many in the east.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Tunisia could be going anywhere, up down or sideways, but the country has definitely joined the league of the top players, which is sad. The latest daily infections gave a little, from 1.4 to 1.3 per 100K, but still trending up as for the last two weeks. Daily deaths remained at 0.026. The daily positive rate rose by a lot to 6.6%, which is worrisome.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
We all know that mask mandates and social distancing save hundreds of thousands of lives and probably could save more if everybody were to follow, but there is “a tremendous amount of COVID fatigue” among the world’s government leaders because of economic downturns. This is what Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle said during a news conference Friday.
This fatigue will coincide with the winter months in the northern hemisphere, where the majority of Earth's population lives, and its fertile breeding ground for viruses in general.
The rather bad predictions for an increase in daily infections and daily death therefore come as no surprise. In some countries, if measures are kept as they are now, numbers could go up way past the first peak. This includes the U.S., Germany and France. In some Nordic countries, no such increase is predicted, owing probably to their good handling of the situation. The same goes for Brazil, because it has no real winter and numbers are already so high, they cannot go much higher.
I suggest that you choose different countries and regions in the IHME map to see the differences. Of particular importance is the red dotted line, which is labelled "mandates easing" and stands for measures being relaxed. This would be akin to a Covid Fatigue.
Of course, even the worst scenario will probably not become true because when numbers are on the rise, new measures will be put in place to counteract the bad development. And the prediction will be a moot point. But it will have served its warning purpose.