Analysis – 12 July 2020

Numbers gave a little because of the weekend

Brazil: Daily cases have fallen three days in a row, now at 18.6 per 100K and daily deaths have fallen to 0.51. I do see a peak in new cases emerging.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily positives have surpassed those of Brazil with 19.9 per 100K and daily deaths have fallen to 0.24. The daily positive rate rose to 9.4%. The heat map shows that the pandemic is continuing its move from metropolitan to rural areas. It shows more red than the day before.
Outlook: Very Bad

California: Daily positives rose to 20.4 per 100K but the trendline has given a little. Daily deaths fell to 0.24, still trending up. The daily positive rate rose to 8%. The heat map has added more red.
Outlook: Very Bad

Washington: Daily positives remain at 8.4 per 100K with an unchanged trendline and daily deaths remain at 0.2, but trending sharply up. The daily positive rate rose from 5.9% to 6.5%. The heat map looks the same as the day before. Quo vadis, Washington?
Outlook: Bad

New York: Daily positives rose fell from 4 to 3.8 per 100K. Daily death numbers fell to 0.03 and are in the European range. The daily positive rate remains at 1.0%. The heat map has added more yellow.
Outlook: Satisfactory

France takes a weekend break and releases no new numbers. Here is the one from Friday: Trends are up but numbers seem to want to settle around their current values. Daily cases gave a little, now at 0.98 per 100K and the trendline is still pointing up. Daily deaths remain low, but rose from 0.02 to 0.04, and the daily positive rate fell from 1.2% to 1.1%. Of concern: the R value is way above 1, as the French epidemiologist claim, but I did not find a number. This is a mixed bag but does not look good.
Outlook: Satisfactory

Germany: Daily cases fell from 0.45 to 0.3 per 100K and the trendline is almost unchanged. Daily deaths are far below <0.01. The daily positive rate was 0.5% two days ago (waiting for the weekly update) and the R value is below one.
Outlook: Good With Concern

Tunisia: New case numbers fell to 0.04 per 100K. Although the 3-week trendline is up, the 5-day one is pointing down. No deaths in 24 days and daily positives remain at 1.0%. I expect more of these fluctuations in daily cases. But the fact that there have been no Covid-19-related deaths in over three weeks is remarkable.
Outlook: Excellent