Where is France going?
This is the last update before the weekend. I will resume on Wednesday.
Brazil saw a big drop of daily infections 14.5 per 100K, trending flat, and with 0.500, the new deaths remain within the oscillating area between 0.250 and 0.650. São Paulo saw the number of new infections decline but they were up in 11 other states.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
U.S. minus CA,NY,WA is still on the right path. Daily infections keep trending down, now at 14.8 per 100K, and daily deaths have a mild tendency to follow while oscillating between 0.150 and 0.450, currently at 0.360. The risk map shows two states going worse.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California wants us to believe again that daily infections are coming down. They came down to 14.1 per 100K, still trending flat. Daily deaths continued to show a huge spread between 0.050 and 0.500 with unclear direction, currently at 0.342. The R-value is at 1, but the risk map looks bad.
Outlook: Very Bad With Confusion
Washington's downward trend of the daily infections is unharmed in spite of a rise from 7.1 to 9.2 per 100K. Daily deaths oscillate between 0.050 and 0.350 with no clear direction. The R-value remained clearly above 1 but is coming down and the risk map looks not so good. WA is on the right path.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York's daily infections remain where they have been for 2 months but they went up to 3.6 per 100K and trending flat. Daily death numbers retreated again to 0.015. For the first time in weeks, two counties went orange but there is still a lot of green on the risk map.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
United Kingdom: Daily infections dropped to 1.6 per 100K, and daily deaths dropped to a very low 0.003 and trending great. Of the three European countries, this one looks the best. If the trend continues, daily infection numbers will either go down again or they will settle. We shall see.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France's daily infections have almost reached the point of the first peak but they gave a little to 6.8 per 100K, trending up even more steeply. This is concerning but, the number contains more asymptomatic people than during the March increase. What is really concerning though is the rise of the daily deaths, which almost tripled to 0.075 and trending up steeper. The daily positive rate had been increasing for 10 days to now 3.4%, indicating a need for more tests to be performed. The R-value remained at roughly 1.33. The risk map is darker than the day before with 5x more Départements going for the worse than going for the better.
Outlook: Bad Getting Worse
Germany's daily infections are on the rise again, currently at 2.5 per 100K and trending up more steeply, which, taken together with a very low new death number of 0.009, is not as concerning as it might seem. True, the last time numbers were that high was 4 months ago, shortly after re-opening. But those numbers were predominantly people with symptoms whereas now, we include a lot of symptomless people. Also, the upwards slope is not as steep as the one leading to the first peak in March. And as long as not more are dying, this relatively high daily toll might be sustainable. But it should not grow any higher.
The R-value has been increasing steadily, now at 1.12, which is not surprising. The risk map shows the South and the South-West as yellow and orange whereas the other regions, particularly the entire East, see a better development. These are the returning holidaymakers. Also, there are now more counties going for the better than in the days before, indicating a potential good trend.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Tunisia: Daily infections have returned from their high of 1., at 0.95 per 100K but keep trending up steeply. Most these happened in the capital Tunis and in the Gabès governorate with the city of El Hamma. Of concern: daily deaths are resurfacing from weeks of zero fatalities, currently at a rather high 0.026 (but representing "only" three deaths). Equally troubling: the daily positive rate increased to 6.8%, meaning that new infections are outperforming testing capabilities.
Outlook: Satisfactory Getting Worse
No remarks today.