Analysis – 20 August 2020

Europe is following the US in counting infections rather than cases
Numbers go up in Europe, true, but where fatalities remain low or even very low, the increased "case" numbers are to a large degree attributable to a shift in testing: from the sick (symptomatic) of the past months towards a mix of sick and seemingly healthy (asymptomatic), such as the ones returning from holidays. These people would have otherwise remained undetected and hence the increase in daily infections does not pose the same risk that the increase of the pure cases did in March.

Brazil has been driving the daily infections down over the last four weeks (now at 23.5 per 100K) but the deaths remain stable and high oscillating between 0.250 and 0.650. 
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

U.S. minus CA,NY,WA is nicely coming off its high. Daily infections keep falling, now at 14 per 100K, and daily deaths have a mild tendency to follow while oscillating between 0.150 and 0.450. The risk map shows three states going better, leaving only Georgia in red.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

California remains a mystery. And now there are the fires too. There could maybe be a tendency for daily infections to abate. At least, they are not increasing any more, currently at 15.6 per 100K. Daily deaths continued to show a huge spread between 0.050 and 0.500 with unclear direction. The R-value fell below 1, which does not correlate at all with the risk map, which looked stably bad.
Outlook: Very Bad With Confusion

Washington is clearly on a good track with daily infections at 7.1 per 100K. Daily deaths oscillate between 0.050 and 0.350 with no clear direction. The R-value remained clearly above 1 and the risk map has the Kitsap peninsula go green, which is a first, but the Cascades hat it not so good.
Outlook: Bad With Hope

New York's daily infections remained roughly at 3 per 100K with a very shallow trend to zero in two or three years from now. What is worrisome is that daily death numbers are coming out of the shallows again, currently at 0.031. 
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

United Kingdom: Britain's numbers are one day ahead. Daily infections still don't dare to go past the 2 per 100K, which is a good sign, particularly because daily deaths remain very low at 0.009 and trending great. 
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

France is in deep trouble. Not only do daily infections increase steadily, currently at 7 per 100K, but daily deaths are sticking their heads out of the cellar as well, currently at around 0.020 and trending up. The second peak is at 85% of the height of the first peak. The daily positive rate had been increasing for over a week to now 3.3%, which means, unlike Germany, there are not enough tests performed. The R-value remained at roughly 1.33. The risk map is darker than the day before. 
Outlook:Bad Getting Worse

Germany is probably consolidating its daily infections at 2 per 100K, which is not too worrisome because, like in New York and Britain, daily deaths remain low, currently at 0.012. The R-value increased a little to 1.08 and the risk map had almost four times as many counties going for the worse than going for the better, particularly in the south and south-west, with are the federal states which still have school holidays and thus an increased number of people moving around for the holidays and returning from abroad. 
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

Tunisia: Daily infections fell below 1 again, at 0.95 per 100K but keep trending up steeply.  Most these happened in the capital Tunis and in the Gabès governorate with the city of El Hamma. Of concern: daily deaths are resurfacing from weeks of zero fatalities, currently at a rather high 0.026 (but representing "only" three deaths). Equally troubling: the daily positive rate increased to 6.8%, meaning that new infections are outperforming testing capabilities.
Outlook: Satisfactory Getting Worse