Europe struggling to keep increases in check, the US getting better but not everywhere
The weekend is over for most regions (it was never over for Tunisia and Brazil is still down). One thing is clear: the virus can re-emerge at any time, even after no reported cases, as was the case in New Zealand. The North-East of the U.S. shows that this can happen here too.
Brazil: (still in weekend drop mode, the country is therefore left out. Following is the assessment from before the weekend) Before the weekend, the data showed us their best: daily infections fell to 24.1 per 100K and daily deaths to 0.504 per 100K. Both trendlines are pointing up though, but not too steeply. The map shows that the city of São Paulo is the hardest hit followed by Veracruz in the region Bahia. Strangely absent is the São Paulo. The daily cases are still avoiding the peak from three weeks ago, which is a positive sign.
Outlook: Very Bad With Maybe Some Hope
U.S. minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections consistently dropped during the weekend to 11.3 per 100K and still trending down. This is still the weekend drop and infections will go up tomorrow. Likewise, daily deaths dropped sharply to 0.137 with a now-downward trend that will probably go up tomorrow. The daily positive tests decreased to 7.8% and the R-value was below 1. The risk map eliminated the two green states in the northeast, reminding us that things can turn around fast. I also shows Southern states going for the better.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Daily infections fell to 16.4 per 100K and trending up more steeply. Likewise, daily deaths dropped sharply to 0.046 and trending down. This is an unusual drop in numbers, which is not supported by the remaining data: The daily positive rate remained at 6.5% and R-value remained above 1. The risk map showed coastal and central counties going worse and the red counties remained red. This could still reflect the repercussions from the weekend or it is something in the making. Given the roller-coaster of the new infections lately, no prediction is possible.
Outlook: Very Bad With Confusion
Washington: Daily infections dropped to 7.5 per 100K with a continued but shallow downward trend. Daily deaths, however, increased to 0.197 per 100K but trending almost flat. The R-value climbed by an inch to 1.11, which is not too good but not terribly bad, and the risk map shows lots of pluses and only one minus. This is great even though the relatively high number of deaths is still troubling.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: There is a long-term trend for the daily infections to go down. Current daily infections dropped to 2.1 per 100K, trending down, while daily death numbers increased a little to 0.031 per 100K. The daily positive rate remained at a good 0.8% as did the R-value, which remained at 0.93. The risk map had counties swap green and yellow, which is nothing remarkable.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
United Kingdom: Britain's daily cases were halved to 1.1 per 100K, indicating that this is still a weekend number. Likewise, daily deaths fell to an incredible low of 0.004. Daily positive rate and R-value were unchanged. We shall wait for real numbers to be reported again.
Outlook: Satisfactory Getting Worse
France: Daily cases dropped by a smidgeon to 3.4 per 100K, which is below the high value before the weekend. If numbers were to stabilise at this relatively high (and New York-style) level, it would be still OK and this week's development will show. Daily deaths dropped to 0.016. The daily positive rate had been increasing for a week and it was 2.9%. The R-value, however, remained at 1.33. The risk map shows 22 Départements going worse and 2 going better, 24 (+1) Départements with elevated risk and 268 clusters (+27).
Outlook: Satisfactory Getting Worse
Germany: The weekend is over and daily cases did not increase any more than they did before. This is hopeful. Daily cases remained roughly at 1.7 per 100K. Daily deaths fell to 0.005. The R-value dropped to 1.04 but the risk map had twice as many counties going for the worse than going for the better. Focal outbreaks happen at places where people are in close indoor contact, such as family gatherings, religious gatherings, retirement homes, hospitals, homes for asylum seekers or agricultural businesses.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Tunisia saw the hotspot at El Hamma near Gabès add over 100 new cases, driving the new case numbers up from 0.48 to 1.02 (the first time over 1) and now a little down to 0.67 per 100K. This is the highest increase in one day since the beginning of the pandemic but the area is contained. However, ~9% of the cases are imported and there is a sizeable number of new cases outside of the hotspot, which, according to the government, are all contained. But I have my doubts.
With two new fatalities, daily deaths are 0.017 per 100K. Not surprisingly, the daily positive rate increased to 5.4%.
Outlook: Good Touching on Satisfactory and Getting Worse
You may have noticed that I did not update the blog on the weekend. Given the bad number reporting, I see no more sense in writing about incomplete data. France, which I have ridiculed for their decision, stopped reporting weekend numbers altogether. On hindsight, this was the right decision because, if the health authorities give out incomplete numbers that happen to be lower than the ones from during the week, the press will report them, often uncommented, and the majority of the people might be lulled into thinking "it is not so bad after all."