Déjà vu in Europe, Hope in the U.S.
Europe's cases are on the rise and while governments are much better prepared now, one is reminded of the lack of concern in the population during the ramp-up to the first peak. This new spread is still exponential and if governments do not impose drastic and decisive measures very soon, I fear a renewed lockdown will be coming. Measures must include stiff penalties for people who do not protect others, and immediate closure of places that do not enforce the rules. At the same time the machinery of tracing-testing-quarantining must be made so good that it works everywhere with not a single day of delay. This is very expensive, but nothing compared to a renewed lockdown.
Brazil: Daily numbers increased but new cases remained below the peak, which is still reason for a tiny little bit of hope. New daily infections are at 28.6 per 100K. Daily death numbers stayed roughly the same at 0.601 per 100K. Both trendlines are pointing up again, which is maybe the second-to-last chapter in the book entitled "Hope for Brazil."
Outlook: Very Bad With Maybe Some Hope
U.S. minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections remained at 16.1 per 100K, still trending down. The U.S. is coming off their peak. But things could go worse in an instant, just look at Europe. Daily deaths fell to 0.366, which is high but the trendline is keeping flat and hopefully down soon. The daily positive tests went slightly down to 8.6% and the R-value remained below 1. The risk map shows New Mexico going better and South Carolina going red.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: ¿Donde vas? The orchard of the U.S. does not send out clear signals, which has probably a lot to do with the agricultural business. Daily infections dropped dramatically to 17.9 per 100K, but the trendline became flatter after days of a downward trend. Daily deaths dropped to a still high 0.405, and trending up. The daily positive rate fell to 6.7% and R-value grew again, but remained below 1. The risk map from two days ago shows even more red and two counties going worse.
Outlook: Very Bad With Some Hope
Washington: The downward trend of cases continues but there are still deep issues in the agricultural hinterland, particularly Okanogan County. Daily infection increased a little to 7.2 per 100K, trending down even steeper for the third day. Yay again! Daily deaths have been on a roller coaster for over a month, currently at 0.105 per 100K, and it is hard to see where they are going. The R-value remained above 1 (1.09) and the risk map remains unchanged.
Outlook: Bad With Some Hope
New York: Looking back a month, values have not changed much and the concern lies in the fact that these values have no intention to come down (but, alas!, also not to go up like in Europe). Daily infections rose by an inch to 3.8 per 100K, trending down still. Daily death numbers rose sharply 0.051 per 100K. The daily positive remained stable 0.9% and the R-value fell to 0.93. The risk map is not exciting.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
United Kingdom: We are one day ahead in Great Britain. I will skip them tomorrow. Johnson's place is having number trouble, as seen with the cumulative active cases (green connected dots). Britain's daily case numbers increased like everywhere else in Europe but with 2.1 per 100K, they were half of France's. These values were about 25% of the first peak and growing. HM government instituted a quarantine for Britons returning from their French holiday but why did they let these people leave in the first place? Because the UK numbers looked pretty bad weeks ago already. Daily deaths fell to 0.016 but they are on average 5x as high as the French fatalities. Daily positive rate and R-value were unchanged.
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse
France: Daily cases increased from 3.8 to 4 per 100K. Barring some outliers, the last time cases were that high was in mid April during the lockdown. These daily numbers are also 50% of the first peak and growing. Daily deaths remained at 0.025. The daily positive rate increased to 2.3% and the R-value remained at 1.33. Other indicators (20% of the Départements at risk, 233 clusters) keep looking worse. Paris and Marseille are the new hotspots and the UK has issued a 2-week quarantine for holidaymakers returning from France (and France wants to retaliate, how childish!).
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse
Germany: Daily cases remained at 1.74 per 100K, trending up steeper though. This value is 20% of the first peak and growing. Daily deaths increased sharply to 0.017, which is probably the beginning of an increase in fatalities caused by the growing number of cases. The R-value went up a little more, now at 1.06. The map shows 7 counties (+2) with orange and red (corresponding to red on the US risk map) and less green than the days before (it uses a 6-colour scale).
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse
Tunisia's new case numbers have climbed up to the record number of the first peak with 0.57 per 100K. Of the new cases, only 6% were imported, so either fewer infected people are arriving from outside or they go undetected and infect others inside. Right now the area around the city of Gabès is affected and it might be cordoned off. Daily deaths are 0.009 per 100K, which is 1 new fatality. The daily positive rate increased to 2.4%, which is not good but still not as bad as other countries. This second peak is not as alarming as the first one because we have learnt from it and we are better prepared. Also, daily cases are only a third of those of Germany. If this continues to a certain, yet unknown level, local or even general lockdown measures would need to be re-introduced, with devastating consequences for the economy.
Outlook: Good Going Worse
There is a report coming out of Fred Hutch claiming that 80% of infected people do not spread COVID-19. Using a computer model the authors found that infected people are only spreading the virus for 1-2 days. And that, unfortunately, before they have symptoms (which was known and typical for most viruses).
"The ethical thing to do as an individual is to walk around with the assumption that you’re infectious and contagious, and that it’s your responsibility to protect the public,” said Dr. Joshua T. Schiffer, an infectious diseases physician and author of the research.
This is essentially nothing completely new but it adds another piece to the understanding of the virus.