Europe going from green to yellow, the Americas from red to orange and yellow
Brazil: The new daily infection numbers are not a high as feared. They went from 24.8 to 26.3 per 100K, they are not as high as the peak values from two weeks ago, which is encouraging. Daily death numbers doubled to 0.606 per 100K but are not as high as the peak from a week ago. Both trendlines are still pointing down but I expect them to go up again by the end of this week. Maybe but by too much.
Outlook: Very Bad With Maybe Some Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: The good trend continues. Daily infections rose by a bit to 16.1 per 100K, keeping the trendline on the nice downward trajectory. Daily deaths grew a little to 0.485, which is a 48-day high. They are trending flat now, on the way to trending up again, but hopefully for a more days only. The daily positive tests went slightly up to 8.9% and the R-value remained below 1. The risk map shows Arkansas and Nevada move to lower risk and no state went up.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Daily infections gave a little to 29.5 per 100K, still trending down, but only barely so. I sincerely hope that they can turn the ship around. Daily deaths rose to a very high 0.456, trending up. The daily positive rate went up to 6.9% and R-value grew but remained below 1. The risk map from two days ago shows too much red. I can only imagine how many people are not following the protection rules either because they think that this is a hoax or they can't because they work as cheap labourers
Outlook: Very Bad With Some Hope
Washington: Daily infection numbers continued their downward path, dropping to 6.6 per 100K, and trending down even steeper for the second day. Yay! Daily deaths, however, more than doubled to 0.250 per 100K, trending up very steeply. The R-value inched up a little to 1.09 and two counties went to worse risk, including my beloved Orcas Island. These are mixed results and the lack of testing data keeps me scratching my head. In the best case scenario, daily infections keep falling, very slowly though and daily deaths should peak in a week or two.
Outlook: Bad With Some Hope
New York: Same old. Daily infections rose by an inch to 3.6 per 100K, trending down still. Daily death numbers remained at 0.036 per 100K as did the daily positive rate at a good 0.9% and the R-value at a good 0.96. The risk map keeps several counties going from green to yellow and back to green but the counties comprising the most populous part of the state and thus the biggest driver of the numbers (New York City) have remained yellow.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
United Kingdom: Daily cases fell a little from 1.7 to 1.5 per 100K, but trending up steeper still. These values are about 20% on the way to the first peak (like Germany). The last days saw the highest values in two months. Daily deaths jumped to 0.049, trending down still, but much shallower so. Daily positive rate and R-value were unchanged. Scotland, which has fared a little better than England so far, with no deaths still in the last three weeks, contributed a lot to the lastest case number increase.
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse
France: Daily cases increased from 2.1 to 3.8 per 100K, trending up steeper. This is the highest value since the end of June and a third on the way to the first peak (and thus worse than Germany and the UK). Daily deaths increased to 0.025. The daily positive rate increased to 2.2% and the R-value increased to 1.33. Other indicators (20% of the Départements at risk, 217 clusters) don't look good at all.
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse
Germany: Daily cases rose to 1.74 per 100K, trending up a little steeper. This is the highest value in 3.5 months, since shortly after re-opening. It is also a about 20% on the way to the first peak (like the UK). We see more cases now because we test more asymptomatic people, which should then, rightfully, be called "infections," like in the Americas. They would not have been included in past statistics because back then we only tested people with symptoms. The recent increase is therefore less severe than the one running up to the first peak.
On the good side, daily deaths decreased to 0.005. This number should go up in a couple of weeks though because some of the new cases will eventually pass away, but fewer than during the first peak because we know now better how to treat patients and some of the cases are younger and have a better chance of survival.
The R-value inched above 1 again. The map shows 5 counties with more than 25 weekly cases per 100 (up from 2) but the rest of the daily numbers stem from small increases in all counties. Also, on the risk map, Germany joind the ranks of France and most other European nations, going from green to yellow. The only big European country still green is Italy, the country that saw the first outbreak in Europe.
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse
Tunisia is adding a worrying 42 new daily cases, 38 of which local. Daily case numbers went up to at 0.36 per 100K, which is two thirds on the way to the first peak!. Another death was reported and I am reporting, for the first time in months, the daily deaths at 0.009 per 100K, which, for the first time, is higher than the German number. The daily positive rate increased to 2.1%. While these trends are alarming, numbers remain relatively low and, and, given the high number of young people in the country, the population as a whole has a lower chance of getting sick or dying from the virus.
Outlook: Good Going Worse
The American Academy of Paediatrics reports an increase of Covid-19 in children over a one month period (9 July to 6 August). This report has some caveats, one being that the definition of what is a child varies from state to state (between 0-14 and 0-20) and that the two most populous states did not report data. But it is concerning because it indicates that children could be responsible for some of the recent increases, although we do not know for certain to which degree children can pass on the virus, particularly those below the age of 10. This would also have consequences for decisions on whether to reopen schools or not.
The cumulative incidence of Covid-19 is 500 per 100K U.S. child population. For comparison, the cumulative incidence in the entire U.S. population is 1500 per 100K. Hence, infected children make up one third of all infected people, which is much higher than their share of the U.S. population.
The percentage of infected children in Germany is about the same as their share of the population (9%), and there is a chance that the U.S. development will happen there too, as more people are getting infected again.
Children are probably a force to be reckoned.