Second peaks continue to form in Europe while the Americas show some hope
Brazil remains in its weekend phase and daily infections decreased further to 10.5 per 100K and, which looks good, trending down. But looks can be deceiving and I predict that from tomorrow on, the trend will go up again, but conceivably not as high up as before, which would then solidify the peak from 2 weeks ago. Daily death numbers rose to 0.335 per 100K but trending down. This trend is owed to a 5-day drop from the almost record high.
Outlook: Very Bad With Maybe Some Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: Here too, the weekend drop extends one more day, showing how much of a lag time is inherent to data reporting. Daily infections fell to 12.3 per 100K and daily deaths to 0.133, pushing both trendlines downward. Daily positive tests also dropped, to 6.6% as did the R-value, which is now 1. The risk map shows WA, AK and ME move to lower risk but Montana went from yellow to orange. Accounting for the weekend drops, the downward trend of the daily infections over the last five weeks is very stable but it remains shallow.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Daily infections fell to 19.6 per 100K and daily deaths fell to a still-too-high 0.167. The R-value rose to 0.96 and the risk map shows mixed results in the centre and the north. The tides have clearly turned but it is a long way to come off this current high, which is comparable to that of Brazil.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily infections dropped further to a 5-week low of 7.2 per 100K, trending down. Daily deaths fell to 0.000 (that is zero), trending up still. Still the weekend drop. The R-value increased to at 1.1 and some counties east of the Cascades have increased their risk level, while some western counties have reduced it. The hodgepodge of half-baked measures that are not even followed by all are to blame. And, of course, the issue with tests and their results, which have not been reported since 1 August and Washington has been a car driving on three cylinders.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: The weekend drop is still present. Daily infections dropped to 2.5 per 100K, trending down even more than the day before. Daily death numbers fell to 0.010 per 100K. The daily positive rate also fell to 0.9% and the R-value remained at 0.97.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
United Kingdom: Daily cases rose from 1.56 to 1.20 per 100K, trending up almost unchanged. Daily deaths jumped from a very low to a still low 0.031, trending down dramatically. Daily positive rate and R-value are unchanged.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: The weekend is over and numbers were not much changed from before. Daily cases fell from 3.41 to 2.41 per 100K, trending up as before. Daily deaths fell to a very low of 0.008. Most importantly though, the daily positive rate increased to 2.1%, and the R-value went up to 1.65, both meaning no good.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: With the weekend drop over, daily cases increased again to levels from before the drop, now at 1.16 per 100K, which made the trend inch up again. Daily deaths increased to a still very low 0.005 but the R-value dropped to 1.05.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia added 20 new cases, including a whopping 17 local. Daily cases were 0.17 per 100K and no new death was reported in ten days. The daily positive rate was 1.7% and the R-value is below 1.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
Bill Gates gave an interview, again. I still don't like the guy for the disaster he has wreaked on the computer world with Windows and Internet Explorer, and I am not a fan of a lot of his initiatives in Africa, but he is a now one of the voices of reason in a sea of unbelievable incompetence.
This time he tells us that the recent uptick in cases in the US was caused by states other than New York (which is right) and that this is like a second wave, which is kind of right. It is not a wave but another peak, and the states that mainly caused this uptick were largely spared by the first peak forming in New York and Washington, so for them, this is their main peak.
He also stresses the importance of testing, which I have mentioned before.
The new vaccine that Russia announced will turn out to be a hoax. The scientific community have long given up on a vaccine as the sole solution to this crisis. Rather, they propose a strategy in which life with the virus will be bearable. This strategy includes massive and repeated testing (followed by quarantining), some vaccination to cut down on the paths of transmission and social distancing measures that can be eased as the testing/quarantining ramps up.