Analysis – 8 August 2020

Hello UK

Brazil: Daily infections fell to 23.9 per 100K and while still trending up, but unchanged from the day before, stayed well below the peak of 33 per 100K from ten days ago. This could potentially be a sign of hope if this were not Brazil with its capricious numbers. Daily death numbers fell to 0.513 per 100K, but trending up a little.
Outlook: Very Bad With Maybe Some Hope

US minus CA,NY,WA: The trend was still downward for the daily infection numbers in spite of a slight increase to 19.4 per 100K. Daily deaths keep their upward trend at an increased 0.430. Daily positive tests were on a one-week downward trend, now at 6.8%, which is a positive sign, as is the overall R-value of just a little above 1 (but varying a lot between states). The risk map had Idaho going red and Ohio go from orange to yellow. I predict that over time, you could overlay an electoral map where red matches red.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

California: Like the US, daily infection numbers kept trending down in spite of a steep increase to 21.35 per 100K. Likewise, daily deaths keep trending up, even steeper than the days before because the three day drop (now at 0.359) was from an all-time high.  The R-value further fell by a fraction to 0.87 and the risk map should reflect these good numbers once it is updated again. The daily positive rate continues its 12-day downward trend and is now at 5.1%. The risk map had the Central Valley still red but there is more green in the north. And the south is no longer red, giving hope to my friends in Palm Springs.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

Washington: Here too, the daily infections kept trending down in spite of an increase in numbers to 11 per 100K. If this trend were to continue, it would make for a peak that is as shallow on its left side as on its right. Daily deaths jumped from a very low 0.006 to an almost record high 0.381. This pattern might have its roots in number reporting issues (e.g. one hospital reporting only every third day with incomplete dates). In the long run, however, daily deaths have remained at the same level. and there is no indication that this is going to change soon. There have been no new testing data reported for four days and therefore we don't know how the daily positive rate has developed. It was at 6.2% four days ago. The R-value increased from 1.07 to 1.08, and for the first time this value is lower in Eastern than in Western Washington.
Outlook: Bad With Hope

New York: Things remained largely the same with daily infections at 3.67 per 100K and trending flat. Daily death numbers dropped a little to a Europe-style low of 0.026 per 100K. The daily positive rate remained at 1.0% and the R-value gave a little to 0.95, which is good. 
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

United Kingdom: The UK had a severe data issue in late July and I waited for it to be resolved before adding them here. The data source is from Her Majesty's Government. Case-wise the UK lies between France and Germany with a similar uptick into a second peak. Death-wise, the UK resembles Washington State in that numbers are scattered about a similar, relatively low range. Daily cases increased from 1.40 to 1.28 per 100K, trending up. Daily deaths increased from 0.072 to 0.144, trending up as well. Daily positive rate and R-value are OK and look thus better than their French equivalents.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

France: Construction of the second peak is well under way. Daily cases increased from 2.39 to 3.41 per 100K, with a now steeper upward trend. Daily deaths remain very low at 0.018. Daily positive rate, which increased to 1.7%, and R-value (1.36) remain of concern, as does the number of clusters and vulnerable Départements.
Outlook:Satisfactory With Concern

Germany: The second peak is growing, fuelled mostly by numbers going up a little almost everywhere. Daily cases have eased to 1.35 per 100K, trending up even more steeply than the very steep from before. Daily deaths went up a little but remained at a very low 0.014. The R-value is 1.16. This is not good.
At the same time, the north is opening its schools (in the south they have closed for the holidays a week ago) and some pupils have already tested positive, leading to closures of two schools barely one week into the school year. This is clearly not a way to respond because, assuming a higher-than-known infection rate, especially among the young, all schools will then be affected at some point in time.
Germany's testing rate is at 10%. New York's is at 30%. If Germany would test as many people as the US does, particularly at random, many more "cases" would be "discovered", with a strong bias towards the younger generation, which are currently underrepresented because Germany is still predominantly testing people with symptoms. And these are usually older.
Instead of mass testing of pupils, Germany focuses on the lesser problem by introducing mandatory testing for people returning from their holidays. Their test results are not produced in time, however, sometimes taking a week. "In time" means that a person has no time to infect others, which would ideally mean that a person is given the result while waiting, which is technically feasible but expensive. 
I would love to see more focus given on mass testing of entire demographics with results reported within the hour.  We could ask Volkswagen to build portable PCR machines.
Outlook: Good With Concern

Tunisia added 14 new cases, including 9 local. Daily case numbers fell to 0.12 per 100K. No new death was reported in seven days. The daily positive rate eased from 2.1% to 2.0%. The government is concerned about a second peak and hospitals claim to be well prepared for more cases. I hope that they know what they are talking about because Tunisia has a much younger population than Europe and exponential growth is much quicker than we think.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern