Brazil meh, US wow, Europe hmm
Brazil: Daily infections fell to 25.3 per 100K and the last 7 days stayed below the peak of 33 per 100K from a week ago. The trendline is pointing up a little more steeply but if numbers do not increase any more, the trend should come down in a week. Daily death numbers fell to 0.588 per 100K, but trending up a little.
Outlook: Very Bad With Maybe Some Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: The nice downward trend of the daily infections continues with the number a tad higher than the day before, at 17.7 per 100K. Daily deaths keep their upward trend at 0.399 and should reach a peak in a week, although it might not yet be discernible as such. Daily positive tests broke their one-week upward trend, dropping from 9.4% to 9.2%. This is could be a positive sign. The risk map was last updated on the 4th (yesterday's marking as the 6th was an error). Uncle Donald telling bedtime stories to his supporters about a vaccine coming before the elections meaning that he has understood the severity of the disease – for his reelection.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: The steep downward trend in daily infections became even steeper with numbers falling to 13.3 per 100K. Like for the US, daily deaths keep trending up, even steeper than the day before, in spite of the numbers dropping to 0.420. We should see a turnaround forming in a week or a little later. In the meantime, hospitals in the most affected counties will keep struggling. The R-value further fell by a fraction to 0.87 and the risk map should reflect these good numbers once it is updated again. The daily positive rate continues its 12-day downward trend and is now at 5.1%. In a pattern that is familiar to other world regions with intensive agriculture, the Central Valley still sees daily positive rates above 10% and will be a stumbling block on California's recovery.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: The nice downward trend in daily infections continues in spite of a slight increase in numbers from 8.7 to 9.3 per 100K, which shows that the decline is here to stay. With daily deaths, currently at a low 0.066, having shown a scattered pattern since April, it is hard to discern any long-time trend but one could rightfully expect a decrease with the caseload easing. There have been no new testing data reported for three days and therefore we don't know how the daily positive rate has developed. It was at 6.2% three days ago. The R-value decreased from 1.09 to 1.07 though, which is a good sign.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: This US state has, from the onset, exhibited characteristics of European nations and its development must therefore be lumped together with the "meh" faction. Daily infections continue oscillating between 3 and 4 and refuse to go down, currently at 3.6 per 100K. Daily death numbers increased a little to a still very low 0.031 per 100K. But these numbers remain 3x higher than those in France and Germany. The daily positive rate remained at 1.0% and the R-value gave a little to 0.95, which is good.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: The picture is unchanged. Daily cases eased from 2.59 to 2.39 per 100K, keeping the same upward trend with no end in sight. Daily deaths remain very low at 0.010. But daily positive rate and R-value remain of concern, although the number of clusters have come down. This second peak is expected to be lower than the first one, which was roughly 10 per 100K at its highest point.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: The second peak is clearly in the making and while there is no sign of easing, the peak is expected to be lower than the first one, which was at roughly 8 per 100K. Daily cases have passed the magic 1 per 100K at 1.38 per 100K, trending up more steeply. Daily deaths remained at a very low 0.010. Due to the RKI's slow reporting of testing numbers, the daily positive rate is now 4 days old and useless for predictions. The R-value should pass the threshold of 1 any time soon. Germany's health care system is well prepared for what people are falsely calling the second wave. Again, a second wave would require either a much lower valley between the peaks or a mutation (as in the "Spanish" flu, which actually did not come from Spain, where the second wave was more deadly than the first) or a different geographical distribution.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia has a continued problem with people arriving with the virus. There were 41 new cases, but only 4 of them were local. Daily case numbers grew from 0.15 to 0.35 per 100K and are trending up. No new death was reported in four days. The daily positive rate grew to 2.1%, a value last seen three months ago at reopening.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
The US has several problems making the fight against Coronavirus harder than in Europe, one being the distrust of governement, the other, of course, people covering their eyes and claiming that they don't see anything, then there is the psychopath in power and lastly, the large number of obese people. The New York Times wrote an article about this in April. Obesity is a known risk factor for Covid-19 but what I did not know was that obese people would have a hard time responding to the vaccine (and for a change I am citing a Fox news article), as is already known from the influenza vaccine.