Turnaround in the US, hard work ahead in Europe
Brazil: Daily infections increased to 27.2 per 100K, and the trendline is pointing up again but not as steeply as in the weeks before. The next days will tell if there is a peak in the making. Daily death numbers went up to 0.684 per 100K, but they are still trending down!
Outlook: Very Bad With Maybe Some Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections remained at 17 per 100K, reinforcing the nice downward trend. Daily deaths climbed to 0.437, pushing the trendline up a little. Daily positive tests continued their one-week upward trend and are now at 9.4%. On the risk map, Washington State went from orange to yellow. What a joy!
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Daily infections increased a little to 14.4 per 100K but the trendline is pointing downward even more steeply. Daily deaths rose from 0.286 to 0.511 but the trendline, and unlike the day before, the trendline is pushed up by a lot. The R-value remained at a good 0.89 and the risk map shows more pluses than minuses (good!). The daily positive rate continues its 11-day downward trend and is now at 5.5%. So overall, California has turned around but some counties in the middle and the south are still in bad shape.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily infections increased a little from 7.1 to 8.7 per 100K, but the trendline is pointing even further downward than on the day before. Daily deaths remain relatively high (they never really went down) going from 0.053 to 0.250, but with an unchanged trend up. While the good news are a developing peak in daily infections, the bad news are a daily positive rate of now 8.1% and a still elevated R-value increased to a worrisome 1.09. The risk map still shows too much red and orange in rural Washington and I assume that this is caused by a larger number of people who choose to believe rather than to know. I which case I wonder why these people have an enlarged frontal cortex compared to, let's say, monkeys or other mammals.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: Number are largely in the same ballpark. Daily infections increased to 3.3 per 100K and trending downward, but only barely so. Daily death numbers remain low and increased a little to 0.021 per 100K, trending down. The daily positive rate remained at 1.0% and the R-value at 0.96. The risk map shows more pluses than minuses, but not in the counties that matter statistically.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: Numbers are Daily cases increased from 1.55 to 2.59 per 100K, trending up more steeply. Daily deaths remain very low at 0.009. The daily positive rate remained at a high 1.6% and the R-value above 1. France stayed yellow on the risk map and has moved far away from the 1 per 100K incidence that is considered a sustainable value (well, of course, depending on the state of the health care system).
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: Daily cases are hovering around the key value of 1 per 100K. The number grew from 0.89 to 1.26 per 100K, which pushed the trendline up more steeply. Daily deaths remained at a very low 0.008. The RKI has published their weekly testing data, showing that it does just a little more testing than France but a lot less than the USA. Another outcome is that the daily positive rate could be recalculated to 0.9%, a tad higher than before but still under 1%. Likewise, the R-value remained under 1, but Germans would not be surprised if it were to pass this threshold in some regions in the coming days.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia: I got ahead of myself and yesterday I reported one day too many. Now we are back on track and here is yesterday's analysis again: Tunisia saw 17 new cases, of which only 2 were local. The opening of the borders has wreaked havoc in the country and clearly shows that it was ill prepared for the onslaught of infected people coming from the outside. Daily case numbers grew from 0.03 to 0.15 per 100K, still trending up. No new death was reported in three days. The daily positive rate grew to 1.8%, which is owed to a still low testing rate. If I were a Tunisian health official, I would ramp up testing, especially at the entry points into the country.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
The BBC has an interesting video on three potential ways this pandemic could end.
1. Herd immunity (not likely, this was discussed before)
2. Coronavirus becomes a feature of everyday life and the pandemic will thus never really end (most likely)
3. A vaccine (also likely but chances are high that it would only attenuate the pandemic)