Americas: turnaround? Europe (and NY): second peak
In spite of frequent news chatter about a second wave, some European countries see a second peak of the first wave, which has never abated.
Brazil: Either this country is still in the weekend depression or it is doing really well out of the blue. Daily infections dropped steeply to 8.9 per 100K and trending up much less. Daily death numbers remained mostly the same at 0.267 per 100K, trending down even stronger than the day before. Assuming that the numbers are still related to the weekend drop, it is one of the biggest drops in a long time and there is hope that tomorrow's numbers won't go up as much as before either.
Outlook: Very Bad With A Sliver Of Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: With the weekend over, the daily infection number did not increase as much as it used to do before, from a relatively low 14.2 to 15.8 per 100K, keeping its downward trend. Daily deaths went up to 0.179 , which is also a much more shallow increase than after previous weekends. The upward trend of the deaths is also greatly reduced now. Daily positive tests remained at a high 9.2%. The risk map still shows a lot of red in the swing states Arizona and Florida who, thanks to mask non-compliers, have a good chance of no turnaround before November. This would then be a first time for a little round spiked ball to have a grave impact on a presidential election.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: The good trend continues and was probably not a weekend dream. Daily infections saw a dramatic drop to 14.5 per 100K pushing the trendline down further. Daily deaths also saw a steep drop from 0.334 to 0.081 with a much depressed upward trend. The R-value decreased a little to 0.97 and one single count went from orange to yellow on the risk map. The daily positive rate continues its 9-day downward trend and is now at 6.1%. Keep going, California!
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: In my home state, too, daily infections dropped dramatically from 11.4 to 8.3 per 100K, pushing the trendline down for the first time. This could be the beginning of a peak in the making. Daily deaths went down from 0.184 to 0.053, trending up less steeply. However, the daily positive rate moved even further away from the magic 5 to 6.2% and the R-value went a little bit above 1. The risk map shows a mix of pluses and minuses. Let's hope that this is not only an extended weekend dream.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: Daily infections largely remained at its previous level with 2.8 per 100K but, refreshingly, trending downward a little more steeply. There is no indication that this trend might be sustainable. On the other hand, daily death numbers fell to German levels of 0.010., which is fantastic and maybe, as I said so often before, the relatively high daily infections are not too worrisome. The daily positive rate remained at its good 1.0% and the R-value fell, great!, a little more still, to now 0.94. The risk map, alas!, moved three counties from green to yellow.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: The French woke from their weekend slumber to find slightly lower numbers. Daily cases dropped from 2.01 to 1.68 per 100K, still trending up steeply but a little less so than before the weekend. Daily deaths gave a tiny bit to 0.014, which is actually above New York State. The daily positive rate remained at its not-too-good 1.5% as did the R-value, above 1 still. France stays yellow on the risk map, has 182 clustered outbreaks (+7) to deal with and still roughly 10% of the Départements classified as vulnerable.
Outlook:Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: The weekend low is over and numbers went up a predicted. Daily cases rose from 0.61 to 1.06 per 100K, trending up less steeply than the day before. If daily case numbers were to remain above 1 per 100K for the next week, Germany would lose its green status and join already-yellow France. On the other hand, daily deaths fell to an incredible 0.004. The daily positive rate is from days ago and I am waiting for the RKI to release new testing numbers. The R-value remained unchanged and good.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia displays the same second peak that plagues Germany, France and New York State but an order of magnitude lower, which makes it look more diffuse, especially on the logarithmic scale I use. Given the greatly reduced capacity of its health care system, this relatively small occurrence of cases is still serious and has health authorities scratching their heads (mostly outside the country, unfortunately). Tunisia saw 4 new cases, of which 3 were local, which is better than days before. Daily case numbers fell from 0.08 to 0.03 per 100K but are trending up unchanged. No new death was reported in two days. The daily positive rate remained at 1.7% and I expect it to come down again with testing volume going up during the work week.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
The Italian Statistical Institute Istat has released data suggesting that in Italy, six times more people have developed antibodies to coronavirus than there are reported cases. Not surprisingly, in Lombardy, a region in the north that was most severely affected, this number is greater than in the south, which saw much fewer cases.
Applying this number to the US, where currently 1.43% of the population have tested positive for the virus, as much as 8% of the population could have been exposed to the virus and, as we know now from other research, could have passed it on.
Or, in my little village in Germany, where we recently had three new cases, this means that 15 others might carry the virus without knowing it.
Frightening, no?
Just as with Aids, you must assume that any person is infected whose personal history with meeting other people you don't know. We have brought Aids largely under our control (at a very high cost though) and we will tackle Covid-19 as well.