Second Day of Weekend Drop Precludes Any Analysis
Brazil: As expected, daily infections dropped to 12.3 per 100K and trending up less. Likewise, daily death numbers dropped to 0.257 per 100K and even trending down. The long-term trend is for numbers to increase at a much slower pace and to ultimately reach a plateau.
Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections dropped to 14.2 per 100K and the trendline is now even pointing downward. Daily deaths decreased to 0.135 with a much decreased upward trend. Daily positive tests are at a high 9.2%. Click on the risk map for your state because there might be something good to discover (but more often not).
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Bucking the US trend, daily infections rose to 22.9 per 100K but the trendline remained unchanged, pointing down. Next week will tell if this is a peak forming. Daily deaths decreased from 0.554 to 0.334 with almost unchanged upward trend. This value is higher than that of Brazil. The R-value increased a little to 0.98, which resonates with two more counties going worse on the risk map. The daily positive rate gave a little to 6.4%.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: (after one day without numbers) Daily infections rose a little to 11.4 per 100K but the trendline was surprisingly flat. Daily deaths were up from Friday's 0.118 to 0.184 and trending up more steeply. The daily positive rate crossed the threshold of the magic 5% and is now at 5.8% and the R-value remained at 1. Next week will tell if new infections have indeed peaked. The risk map shows three pluses, which is a good sign.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: Daily infections went down to 2.7 per 100K leading to a slightly decreased downward trend. This is good. Daily death numbers fell to a low 0.031. The daily positive rate remained at 1.0% and the R-value fell a little to 0.96 (which is the right direction). The risk map looks good, but I will only be happy if I see some green in the counties of New York City.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France is in weekend slumber. Here is the analysis from Friday's numbers: The last numbers before the weekend have eased a little but things do still not look good. New case numbers dropped a tiny bit to 2.01 per 100K, trending up a little steeper than the days before and daily deaths fell to a very low 0.016. The daily positive rate remained at 1.5% as did the R-value (1.3). France stays yellow on the risk map, has 175 clustered outbreaks to deal with and 10% of the Départements classified as vulnerable. For the next two days, France will navigate blindly.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: Daily cases doubled to 0.61 per 100K, which is still much lower than last week's values and the trendline is pointing down even more steeply. I expect numbers to go up again after the weekend and hope that I am wrong. Daily deaths are at 0.008, which is very very low. Both, daily positive rate and R-value remained unchanged and good.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia added 9 new cases, of which 7 were local, which is not good. Daily case numbers fell from 0.15 to 0.08 per 100K and are trending up unchanged. No new death was reported. The daily positive rate rose to 1.7% due to decreased testing on the weekend.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
Today is a beautiful day. Cool and rainy, which, after a week of humid heat, feels like a blessing. I am using the time out for some long overdue housework.