Same Old
Brazil: Numbers are trending up again like before last week's period of hope. Daily infections dropped from 27.5 to 24.9 per 100K and trending up more. Likewise, daily death numbers increased a little to 0.577 per 100K, trending up now. Anything could happen in a country with limited testing capabilities, limited access to healthcare and presumed limited reporting of cases from the hinterlands.
Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections rose to 21.7 per 100K, pushing the trendline to become flat. Which is the good news for several days now. Daily deaths inched a little higher, to 0.445, and are now trending up even more steeply. Click on the risk map for your state.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California shows the same trend as the US: Daily infections fell again to 20.4 per 100K and the trendline was pushed slightly down (great!). I am still cautious to call this a turnaround. Daily deaths decreased to 0.243, but the trendline is pushed up even steeper. The R-value moved up to being 1 .On the really positive side: The daily positive rate dropped for the seventh day in a row, now at 6.5%. The risk map is a mix of pluses and minuses and I hope to see more green next week.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily infections rose a little to 10.7 per 100K making the trendline go flatter but still going up. Daily deaths rollercoastered from 0.394 to 0.092 to now 0.118 and trending up more steeply. The daily positive rate remained 5.6% but the R-value rose to 1. I see a plateau forming for the new infections and the deaths are going up and down at a low level. The risk map shows more minuses than pluses, which is not a good sign.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: Daily infections fell to 3.3 per 100K with an unchanged downward trend. Daily death numbers were halved to 0.026, trending up less steeply than the day before. The daily positive rate remained at 1.0% and the R-value at 0.99. This looks all good, as does the risk map, which has more pluses than minuses.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: The last numbers before the weekend slumber have eased a little but things do still not look good. New case numbers dropped a tiny bit to 2.01 per 100K, trending up a little steeper than the days before and daily deaths fell to a very low 0.016. The daily positive rate remained at 1.5% as did the R-value (1.3). France stays yellow on the risk map, has 175 clustered outbreaks to deal with and 10% of the Départements classified as vulnerable. For the next two days, France will navigate blindly.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany sees the highest new case value since early May with new case numbers at 1.15 per 100K, which is pushing the trendline up even steeper. If this trend continues after the usual weekend drop, the government needs to act. Possibly by stricter enforcement of the rules. If this does not work, more drastic measures need to be taken again. Daily deaths remained at the extremely low of 0.008, the daily positive rate remained at 0.8%, and the R-value is thankfully still below 1.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia added 22 new cases, of which only 4 were local. Daily case numbers fell to 0.18 per 100K but are still trending up. We have now more daily cases than before Phase 1 of reopening. Daily deaths are at 0.000 for the 44th day and the daily positive rate fell slightly to 1.4%. On the risk map, Tunisia is still green and its neighbours are struggling.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
The Pew Research Center just released a pretty long analysis of a survey that finds that 18% of the population gets their news primarily from social media and that they tend to be the younger ones. They also found that those who depend on social media for their political news have lower political knowledge than other groups. They are also more likely to not to get the fact right about Coronavirus and are likely to hear some unproven claims.
While this applies to the US, the rest of the Western world might have similar breakdown. Meaning the young, who are already at higher risk of getting infected, tend to understand it less than the older population.