Hope in the US, Deer-in-Headlight in Europe
Brazil: After the record high from the 29th, daily infections dropped from 33.4 to 27.5 per 100K and trending up more. Likewise, daily death numbers stopped their three-days rise and dropped to 0.537 per 100K, trending flat.
Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections rose a little to 21.6 per 100K, but for the first time the trendline is pointing slightly down. Thus, the good trend continues, as does the bad one with the daily deaths, which went down a little to 0.400 but are now trending up even more steeply. The pattern of "good infection numbers with death numbers rising" is also present in the three states and I assume that this is the case in other states as well, with a heavy toll on the health care system in some localities. The risk map has not been updated.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Daily infections rose again to 25.8 per 100K but this number still remains below the peak value of 32 per 100K from a week ago and the trendline remains flat. I am still not sure if this is the turnaround. Daily deaths gave a tad to 0.491, which is still close to the record high and pushing the trendline up again. On the really positive side: The daily positive rate dropped for the sixth day in a row, now at 7.0%. The R-value inched closer to but remains below 1.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily infections gave a little to 10.2 per 100K making the trendline go flatter but still up. Most importantly: the two-week trend goes down, indicating a potential turnaround in the making. That is, if more people swallow their egotistical pride and follow the rules. Daily deaths fell sharply from their almost record high of 0.394 to 0.092 but trending up more steeply. The daily positive rate increased a little to 5.6% and the R-value rose to 0.99.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: Daily infections rose to 4 per 100K with an unchanged downward trend. Daily death numbers doubled to 0.067, trending up. The daily positive rate decreased a notch to 1.0%. The R-value went up to 0.99. If people keep following the distancing and protection rules, the daily infections could come really down and the deaths will follow a little later. If however some people think that the rules don't apply to them or if they are forced to work in conditions where social distancing is not an option, we will see roller coaster numbers for months to come.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: New case numbers remained at their two-month high of 2.05 per 100K, trending up even steeper than the day before. Daily deaths inched up to a still very low 0.024. The daily positive rate has increased for several days now and is at 1.5%. The R-value remained above 1. France stays yellow on the risk map.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany has had two days of data glitches by its RKI, with initially reporting incorrect numbers and correcting them a few hours later. New case numbers sagged a little from 1.09 to 1.05 per 100K but pushing the trendline up even steeper. This number is still a far cry from the 3 per 100K when Germany reopened, but the consistently high number of daily cases (>600, while they used to be in the 300 range) worries the health officials. Daily deaths remained at the extremely low of 0.008, the daily positive rate remained at 0.8%, and the R-value is thankfully still below 1.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia added 26 new cases, of which only 4 were local. Daily case numbers grew to 0.22 per 100K and are trending up. We have now more daily cases than before Phase 1 of reopening. Daily deaths are at 0.000 for the 43rd day and the daily positive rate went slightly up to 1.5%. On the risk map, Tunisia is still green and its neighbours are struggling.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
Today is going to be very hot and the weekend will be even hotter. School's out for summer in the state of Baden-Württemberg (after just a few days of regular school) and the young ones will be flocking the outdoor spaces in smaller or larger groups, wearing no masks and certainly without any distance.
While an earlier study has suggested that children under the age of 10 are not very likely to spread the virus, there is a new study from the US that finds the exact opposite. All these recent studies lack in the number of participants and we will only know for sure in a couple of years.
But no matter if the very young carry more of the virus or not, young adults can transmit and have a reduced chance of showing alarming symptoms. As I have stated before, these young adults and the older ones too, who do not follow the distancing rules, have a great capacity to pass the virus among them, potentially without knowing. And they become a hotbed for transmission to the older generation where the virus will induce symptoms and thus will make it into the daily numbers.
And this worries me a lot.