Optimism is nice, reality is often not so
Brazil: The optimist me spoke too early. Daily infections went from 11.1 to 19.4 to 33.4 per 100K and trending up again. This is a record high. Likewise, daily death numbers grew three days in a row and are now at 0.759, but trending still down, albeit by just a thread. This does not look good at and I fear that at this time Pandora's box can no longer be closed.
Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections rose to 20.7 per 100K, still trending flat. This is the good part and there is a definite trend to no more increase in daily infections. Daily deaths however went to an almost two-month high of 0.440, trending up even more steeply. I expect this not to grow for too long though. The daily positive rate decreased to 8.5%, which is in line with the lower daily infections. The risk map is still lacking green shades though. Red areas are probably the ones where hospital capacity will come to its limits.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Daily infections rose again to 22.2 per 100K but this number remains well below the peak value of 32 per 100K from a week ago and the trendline is now almost flat. I am still not sure if this is the turnaround. Daily deaths though more than doubled to a record 0.499, which is 25 % of the average daily dead. But trending down still and should go down if there are not a lot more new infections. On the really positive side: The daily positive rate dropped for the fifth day in a row, now at 7.2% and the risk map sees more pluses than minuses. The newly added R-value is below 1, which is another positive.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily infections rose again to 11.6 per 100K with a slightly less-steep upward trend. The increase in daily infections has slowed down over the last two weeks, which is positive. I am waiting for this curve to peak. Unfortunately, daily deaths went to an almost record high of 0.394 and trending up. This is in line with CA and the US and I expect the number of fatalities to ease a little after daily infections have peaked. The daily positive rate increased a little to 5.4% and the risk map shows a Cascade county turning from red to yellow (a big leap). Another good thing is the newly added R-value, which is below 1 and an increased testing rate, which rose above that of California.
Outlook: Bad With A Ray Of Hope
New York: Daily infections rose to 3.7 per 100K and are still trending down. Daily death numbers fell to 0.031, and still not trending down as nicely as two weeks earlier. The daily positive rate increased a notch to 1.1%. On the clear positive side is a risk map with a lot more green and a newly-added R-value of below 1.
Outlook: Satisfactory
France: New case numbers doubled to a two-month high of 2.08 per 100K, trending up steeper. Daily deaths inched up to a still very low 0.022. The daily positive rate remained at 1.4%, and the R-value remained above 1. France remains yellow on the risk map and the testing rate fell below that of Germany, both worrisome.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: There was a data glitch that has been corrected 12 hours later. New case numbers increased to 1.09 per 100K with a steeper upward trendline. This is the highest daily value in 2½ months. The daily deaths remained at the extremely low of 0.007, the daily positive rate inched higher to 0.8%, and the R value is still below 1. These numbers are reason for concern but the population around me is behaving as if there were no renewed threat. I am reminded of the time in late February when I was stocking up on food items and people were laughing at me.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia added 20 new cases, of which 12 were local, a number that has steadily been growing and should be of concern. Daily case numbers grew to 0.17 per 100K and are trending flat (but that changes fast at such low numbers). Daily deaths are at 0.000 for the 42nd day and the daily positive rate went slightly up to 1.4%. On the risk map, Tunisia is still green.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
I have added R-values for the US. These are taken from RT Live where they explain what they mean right at the beginning. Roughly, if Rt is below 1, it is good and for WA, CA and NY, these R-values are all just that. In the counties with a red risk, the R-values should be higher, but these are then counterbalanced by other counties with R-values far below 1.
If an R-value has been below 1 for a while but goes above 1 and remains there for a week, this is a warning sign (such as the number of cases per 100 000 and other factors) and could lead to renewed measures.