Hope in the Americas, Worry in Europe
Brazil: After the weekend drop, daily infections did not increase as much as feared. They went from 11 to 19.4 per 100K , which is a far cry of the 32 we saw a few days ago, and trending almost flat. Likewise, the daily death numbers rose from 0.29 to 0.44, trending still down! There is hope that a the peak has passed and that daily numbers will be on a downward trajectory.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: After the weekend drop I was expecting the numbers to increase a little. But they didn't. Instead, daily infections fell again, from 17.4 to 17.2 per 100K, trending flat for the first time since the beginning of June. Daily infections show thus every sign of a turnaround. Daily deaths remained at 0.380, trending up steeply, but with a long-term trend towards not surpassing the 0.400 line. If they were to go higher though, this would not be unexpected since it would partially be the result of the rising infections of the weeks before and numbers would ultimately come down. The daily positive rate decreased to 8.9%. The risk map is still lacking green shades though. US-Americans need a lot of self-restraint to get their numbers to where Europe is now, and then they need to persevere for months and months. I am not sure if the US is capable of doing this.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Like in the US as a whole, daily infections fell from 17.4 to 15.2 per 100K and the trendline went down again. It did briefly so a couple of days ago when I was hopeful about a peak having been reached but now, if people don't screw up, this turnaround should be for real. Daily deaths though more than doubled to 0.185, but trending down still. The daily positive rate dropped for the fourth day in a row, now at 7.5%, which is a good sign but the number needs to be below 5 % and other criteria must be met before even thinking of relaxing the restrictions. The risk map is unchanged, which given the circumstances is a good thing.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington has reason to be cautiously optimistic as well. Daily infections dropped for the third day in a row, from 10.3 to 9.1 per 100K with a largely unchanged upward trend. If WA were to follow the trend of the US, there could be a new, downward, trend in the making. Unfortunately, daily deaths doubled to 0.223, which is the highest value in two months (disregarding the outlier). While the trendline is pointing down, if one were to leave out the very low value from two days prior, death numbers would still be trending up. If there were to be a turnaround in new infections in a few days, death numbers should follow a couple of weeks later and would not longer pose a threat to the health care system. The daily positive rate remained at an almost-OK 5.2% and the risk map has one single green highlight in Whitman County with the university town Pullman, while the centre of the state remains red.
Outlook: Bad With A Ray Of Hope
New York: This is the day of falling numbers in the Americas and NY is no exception. Daily infections fell from 3.1 to 2.7 per 100K and are now trending down. Daily death numbers fell from 0.057 to 0.046, and while they are trending down, they seem to feel to comfortable in the vicinity of 0.060, although being a number that does not overwhelm the system. The daily positive rate decreased a notch to 1.0%. The risk map, while looking much better than most of the US, needs a lot more green.
Outlook: Satisfactory
France: New case numbers fell from 1.27 before the weekend to 1.08 per 100K, trending still up, a little less steeply though. Daily deaths inched up to a still very low 0.021. The daily positive rate rose for the third day, now at 1.4%, and the R value remained above 1. The French, like many other Europeans, are rightfully worried about cases to move up again and are taking localised preventive measures. France moved from green to yellow on the risk map as did large parts of Europe.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany is the only exception in this list, as daily case numbers rose from 0.76 to 0.82 per 100K and trending up more steeply. The daily deaths remained at a very low 0.007, the daily positive rate was 0.7% nine days prior (waiting for the RKI to publish new numbers), and the R value is still below 1. German officials are worried about a surge of new cases.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia added 13 new cases, of which 5 were local, which is not so good. Daily case numbers fell from 0.03 to 0.11 per 100K and are still trending down. Daily deaths are at 0.000 for the 41st day and the daily positive rate went slightly up to 1.3%. While its neighbours Algeria, Morocco and Libya have turned yellow on the risk map, bracing for local lockdown measures, Tunisia seems to be a beacon in a rough sea.
Outlook: Excellent With A Little Concern
While numbers are rather low and Germany's handling of the crisis has been lauded all around the world, the lack of discipline, spurred on by everyday life that feels almost normal, has German officials worried. Margaret Harris of the WHO said people have to function differently because "the virus loves the way we love to be together."
The best way to understand this complacency is the talk about a "second wave" coming, which demonstrates that in peoples' minds the first wave is over. But the first wave was never over. Neither in Germany, nor in France or Italy or Spain nor in New York State.
It is our minds tricking us that everything is OK. And that is dangerous.