Faint Hope in the Americas
Brazil: The weekend drop is still visible and numbers are very low. Daily infections dropped to 11 per 100K and daily deaths to 0.29, bringing both trendlines to point down. I expect numbers to go up again but daily infections and deaths are probably on a path to going flat. The daily positive test rate is in the vicinity of 80%, which I have discussed before.
Outlook: Very Bad With Faint Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections fell from 23.8 to 17.4 per 100K and daily deaths rose to 0.38 and both trendlines are still pointing up, but less steeply so. Daily infections are possibly coming to a plateau. The daily positive rate decreased to 8.9%. The risk map is still lacking green tones,
Outlook: Very Bad With Faint Hope
California: Daily infections fell from 25.5 to 17.4 per 100K with an unchanged upward trend. Daily deaths dropped by a lot to 0.070 with a trendline going down now. While this low daily value may be an outlier, overall, the daily deaths might have left their highest values behind for good. The daily positive rate dropped a little to 7.8%, which is still too high to allow any activity that is still happening in the state. The risk map continues the trend of northern counties turning to a worse risk.
Outlook: Very Bad With Faint Hope
Washington: Daily infections dropped a little from 10.7 to 10.3 per 100K with a largely unchanged upward trend. Daily deaths decreased to 0.090 with a largely unchanged upward trendline. On the better side: The daily positive rate remained at 5.2%, which, combined with steeply increased number of tests performed, shows that there is still a large positive population (because otherwise an uptick in testing would have resulted in a reduction of the positive rate). The risk map remains unchanged except for small Wahkiakum County turning green.
Outlook: Bad With A Ray Of Hope
New York: Daily infections fell from 3.9 to 3.1 per 100K and trending flat, again. The long-term trend is for daily infections to remain at the 3 per 100K level, which is manageable and probably as low as New York City, the main driver of these data, can go. Daily death numbers went from 0.070 to 0.060, and while they are currently trending down, the long term trend is for them to remain at this level. The daily positive rate remained at a good 1.1%. The risk map is nothing too concerned about but I would expect to see more green in the more sparsely populated counties.
Outlook: Satisfactory
France: New case numbers fell from 1.68 before the weekend to 1.27 per 100K, but the trendline was unmoved, still pointing up. Daily deaths fell to a very low 0.008. The daily positive rate rose to 1.3% and the R value remained above 1.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Germany: Daily case numbers fell from a pre-weekend 0.96 to 0.76 per 100K and trending up a little less steeply. The daily deaths remained at a very low 0.005. The daily positive rate was 0.7% seven days prior (waiting for the RKI to publish new numbers), and the R value is still below 1. The rise in daily cases after the weekend drop was not as steep as feared and the one-month trend shows them to go flat around 0.5 per 100K. There is no sign of second peak forming as some doomsday politicians have alleged (they even called it a second wave).
Outlook: Good
Tunisia: added 3 new cases, of which one was local. Daily case numbers fell from 0.08 to 0.03 per 100K with the trendline pointing downward. There were 0 deaths reported in 40 days and the daily positive rate went down to 1.2 %.
Outlook: Excellent
Russ pointed me to this site, Covid-19 RECoVERY Consulting, which has a Risk Index chart for various activities. It shows inside activities involving more than a few strangers with unknown infection status, such as bus, train or plane, as high risk. And I agree.
High risk can mean different things depending on the prevalence of the virus in the population. In an area with very low numbers, there are just not enough people around to infect you. This would apply to the region in Germany where I live and to many others in Europe.
In regions with clustered outbreaks or in regions with high overall infection numbers, maybe exacerbated by people not wearing masks, high risk has a much higher likelihood of getting you infected.
