Analysis – 25 July 2020

Going into the weekend with a pretty sober outlook

Brazil: After yesterday's record high, daily infections dropped a little to 26.6 per 100K and daily deaths to 0.55, but both trendlines went up a little steeper. In spite of this, daily fatalities seem to have reached a plateau, which is a ray of light in the darkness.
Outlook: Very Bad

US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections grew from 21.4 to 23.8 per 100K and the trendline became steeper. Daily deaths increased to 0.37 and trending up steeper too. The daily positive rate decreased to 9.2%. The heat map shows too little green and I fear that this will not change much in a society that is actively divided by its president where unity is needed.
Outlook: Very Bad

California: The week closes with another record high in daily fatalities. Daily infection numbers fell from 32.4 to 30.5 to now 24.6 per 100K, but trending up more than the previous days. Daily deaths reached 0.4 and trending up a lot more steeply than before. The daily positive rate was at 7.9%. The heat map showed even less green and two counties in the north having a worse risk.
Outlook: Very Bad

Washington: Daily infections rose from 8.8 to 10 per 100K with an unchanged upward trend. Daily deaths increased to a one-month high from 0.04 to 0.18 and pushing the trendline even more up. On the better side: The daily positive rate decreased to 4.8%. and the heat map showed two counties west of the Cascades with better risk levels. This has been going on for too long and only radical measures can bring the numbers down.
Outlook: Bad

New York: Daily infections fell from 4.4 to 3.9 per 100K but trending up more steeply than the days before. Daily death numbers dropped from 0.07 to 0.05 and have not changed their downward trend. They are now at 0.07. The daily positive rate remained at a good 1.1%. The heat map has more "+" than "-", which is a good sign. But NYC remains yellow and I want to see it turn green.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

France: New cases rose from 1.58 to 1.68 per 100K, with an even steeper trendline than the day before. Daily deaths remained at their very low 0.015. The daily positive rate remained at 1.2% and the R value remained above 1. The French should seriously think about stronger measures.
Outlook: Good With Concern

Germany: Daily case numbers eased a little to 0.96 per 100K but trending up even more steeply. Daily deaths eased to 0.008. The daily positive rate was 0.7% five days prior, and the R value is still below 1. Some foolish politicians speak of a second wave forming. They should know that for a second wave to happen, the first one needs to be gone, which was never the case.
In any way, it is just semantics. The numbers go up again because we thought it was all over and we let our guards down, yours truly being no exception. And now, instead of the localised outbreaks of just a few weeks ago, which can be contained by localised lockdowns, numbers increase equally, and by just a few cases, all over the republic. Germany is at roughly ¼ of the daily numbers of those in March when a country-wide lockdown was pronounced.
Outlook: Good With Concern

Tunisia: They added 19 new cases, all imported and taken care of. Daily case numbers rose to 0.16 per 100K with 0 deaths reported in 37 days and the daily positive rate inched up to 1.6%. The latter increase is owed to the fact that fewer people were tested on this day than on days before while more people tested positive than on the day before.
Outlook: Excellent

Remarks – On Losing Weight

Losing weight is relatively easy. At least compared to keeping the pounds off after the diet is over.

Most people who diet revert back to their old weight a few months later and some even gain more than when they started their diet.

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