Analysis – 23 July 2020

Things are not as rosy as one had wished

Brazil: Sadly, numbers are up again. Daily infections rose to 32.3 per 100K but daily deaths fell a little to 0.61. Both trend lines are still pointing down, which is still a good sign, and I sincerely hope that today was just an outlier.
Outlook: Very Bad With Faint Hope

US minus CA,NY,WA: I spoke too early about things turning for the better. Daily infections are up a notch, now at 20.7 per 100K with an unchanged trendline. Daily deaths remained at 0.37 and trending up more steeply than the infections. The daily positive rate remained at 9.6%. The new infections are still trending up less steeply than in the week before.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

California: Daily infection numbers increased from 23.4 to 32.4 per 100K, pushing the trendline up steeper again after two weeks of inching towards going flatter. Daily deaths doubled to 0.29 and trending up more steeply than before. The daily positive rate increased from 7.5% to 7.6%. The risk map shows too much red and orange.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

Washington: Daily infections went up a little from 10.4 to 10.9 per 100K, but the trendline is not changing its upward angle. Daily deaths doubled to 0.16, pushing the trendline up. The daily positive remained at 5.1%. The heat map shows no change from the day before and has too little green on the west side of the Cascades.
Outlook: Bad

New York: Daily infections fell from 4.4 to 3.6 per 100K and still trending flat. Daily death numbers stopped their three day down and quintupled to a still low 0.05, and still trending down. The previous very low value must have been an outlier. The daily positive rate remained at a good 1.2%. The heat map looks promising.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

France: The French are having another number glitch. This time it is with the cumulative death numbers, which, two days ago, went down, pushing daily fatalities into the negative (which is only possible in the world of Asterix, the Gaul). New cases rose sharply from 0.87 to 1.49 per 100K, pushing the trendline up even steeper. Daily deaths, if they can be believed, have gone down for a week, now at a very low 0.01, trending down. The daily positive rate remained at 1.2% and the R value is above 1.
Outlook: Good With Concern

Germany: Daily case numbers increased 0.55 to 0.68 per 100K and the trendline is now going up. Could this be the beginning of what people have been fearing? Daily deaths remained far below 0.01 (at 0.072) but were up five days in a row, which is not exactly a positive sign. The daily positive rate was 0.6% five days prior, and the R value is still below 1.
Outlook: Good With Concern

Tunisia: They added 5 new cases, all imported, and daily case numbers fell to at 0.04 per 100K with 0 deaths reported in 35 days and the daily positive rate falling to 1.4%. This wavelet of new cases is ebbing off.
Outlook: Excellent