Good trends, hoping they will last
Brazil: Now the weekend is really over and numbers have gone up again, but not as much as in the weeks before, keeping the nice downward trend. Daily infection numbers rose 19.5 per 100K and daily deaths doubled to 0.65. And while fatalities are still on a downward trend, but only barely so, they need to come down 10 times or more.
Outlook: Very Bad With Lots Of Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: Numbers will go for the better now that Trump has given in to reality and finally donned a mask. Daily infection numbers are not increasing as much as in the weeks before and the trendline is rising less steeply for a few days now with daily infections at 19.2 per 100K. Daily deaths, however, tripled to 0.36, pushing the trendline up even more steeply. The daily positive rate remained at 9.6%. Alaska is seeing some counties turn from yellow to red on the heat map but given the low population and the relatively small number, this is likely to be just a spur of the moment. There is hope for a peak in new infections to be reached soon, with the deaths following a few weeks later.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Here too, a decline in daily infection numbers is apparent and a peak might be reached soon. Daily infection numbers increased from 17.3 to 23.4 per 100K, with a much flatter trend than two weeks earlier. Daily deaths are up from the weekend drop but still at a relatively low 0.15 and trending up less steeply. The daily positive rate increased, just like the daily numbers, to 7.5%. The heat map shows risk levels going worse in only one county, which is a good sign.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily infections fell from 12.1 to 10.4 per 100K, but the trendline is not changing its upward angle. It is too early to call this three-day drop in new infections a trend. Daily deaths doubled to 0.08, pushing the trendline flat. The daily positive remained at 5.1 %. The heat map is encouraging with three counties going for the better and only one for worse.
Outlook: Bad
New York: After the weekend drops, there is essentially no change in the trends. Daily infections rose from 2.67 to 4.4 per 100K and still trending flat. Daily death numbers show a three-day drop from 0.04 to 0.01, trending down. This is very good because it is in the range of the French and German numbers. The daily positive rate remained at a good 1.2%. The heat map though shows three counties going from green to yellow.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: Like New York, France has case numbers stubbornly refusing to go down, albeit 4 times lower, while deaths are very low. New cases gave a little to 0.87 per 100K, with a slight, and concerning, upward trend. Daily deaths though continue their weeklong down spree, now at a very low 0.001, trending down. The daily positive rate at 1.2% and the R value is a too-high 1.2.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Germany: Daily case numbers fell a little from 0.33 to 0.55 per 100K but refuse to go down and the trendline is going flat at half of the level of the French daily numbers. Like France, daily deaths remained far below 0.01 (at 0.006). The daily positive rate was 0.6% four days prior, and the R value is below 1.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia: They added 8 new cases, all imported, and daily case numbers are at 0.07 per 100K with 0 deaths reported in 24 days and the daily positive rate inching up a little to 1.6%. The government is concerned about the high number of infected people returning to the country and they will step up testing at the borders.
Outlook: Excellent
I have neglected the Case Fatality Ratio lately. After weeks of trying to make sense of it, it becomes apparent, that regions with falling CFR are also those with rising numbers of infections. NY, DE and FR show their CFR declining only slowly, which is caused by steady case numbers and decreasing fatalities. Proof of this theory is that Tunisia, which has seen a slow decline just like the three aforementioned countries, sees their CFR declining much more steeply with the new (imported) infections.
So maybe the take-home message is this:
CFR declining slowly: good
CFR declining fast: bad