It is the second day of the weekend with the same trends as on the previous day
Brazil: The upwards trend of new infections is broken. Weekend numbers, which are always lower, have sunken to 11.2 per 100K and daily deaths went down to 0.34, which still remains the highest death toll per capita in the regions shown in this blog. The R-value varies between the states with good results and those where the virus is still on an upward trend, but it ranges between 0.9 and 1.5, which is a lot better than a week earlier.
Outlook: Very Bad With Lots Of Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: The second day of the weekend made daily infections drop even more, now at 19.7 per 100K, but they continue their upward trend since mid June. So both trends remain strong in spite of a rather large drop in the daily data. This mean no good. Likewise, daily deaths came down to 0.15 but with a clear upward trend. The daily positive rate gave a little to 9.7%.
Outlook: Very Bad
California: The second day of the weekend did not do the expected and increased daily infection numbers to 23.6 per 100K, going up since mid May, but decreasing daily deaths to 0.23, which keep their steep upward trend. The daily positive rate rose to 7.3%.
Outlook: Very Bad
Washington: The slump from the day before was undone and daily infections rose from 9.9 to 12.6 per 100K, continuing the 2-month upward trend. Daily deaths too, are higher at 0.13. The daily positive rate fell to 5.0% though. If these are good numbers due to a lack of reporting, I am not looking forward to the coming week.
Outlook: Bad
New York: Daily infections see a big drop to 2.6 per 100K, but continuing their trend up. Daily death numbers, went up from a low 0.06 to a still low 0.07 and trending slightly down. A clear deviation from the downward trend of the last months is apparent though as if the numbers were afraid of the deep waters below 0.03. The daily positive rate remained at 1.2%.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France is pausing data reporting for the weekend: But my fear from 4 July, which was confirmed by an almost continued upwards trend of the new cases combined with repeated number reporting issues, has finally arrived at the Elysée. They finally instituted what had been the norm in Germany for a long time: mask wearing everywhere indoors, coupled with a 135 € fine.
Here is Friday's analysis: Daily cases went up again, from 0.66 to 0.8 and now to 1.25 per 100K and trending slightly up. Daily deaths sagged to an even lower 0.021, which is good, were it not for the increasing trendline. The daily positive rate went from 0.9% to 1.1% and now 1.2% and the R value is 1.2.
Outlook: Satisfactory With A Lot Of Concern
Germany: The second day of the weekend made numbers go up a little but they remain lower than before the weekend. Daily cases rose to 0.3 per 100K but are now trending down a little. Daily deaths remained far below 0.01 (at 0.0024) and the daily positive rate was 0.6% two days prior. The R value is below 1. I fear that we will need to close the border to France again because some of the new Covid clusters are just across the Rhine.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia: Daily case numbers are on the rise with 0 deaths reported in 32 days. Of the 26 new cases, 24 came from outside and the two domestic cases had been in contact with positive people. The case number doubled to 0.22 per 100K and the daily positive rate rose to 2.1%. With 40 % of the cumulative cases being external, they had been a mainstay from the onset of the pandemic, dropping during the time of lockdown and now rising again. This is owed to the large number of Tunisian nationals living abroad, mainly in France and Italy.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
A few days ago I wrote about why one should not leave it to the individual whether to take the virus seriously. World numbers show that countries with a history of strong control of its people, namely China, or those with a pandemic plan in place, namely Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and neighbouring countries, tend to have far better numbers than those with no pandemic plan or the requirement for lengthy debate before action, namely all of Europe and a lot of the countries it used to colonise, maybe with the exception of the middle of Africa not the lease because some of these countries have extensive epidemic experience.
The pandemic had Tunisia well prepared because all they needed to to is dig out the repressive tools the dictatorship had used. These tools were second only to the ones used in China at the time. And Tunisian numbers would look even better were it not for Tunisian nationals returning from France and Italy, countries who have failed to contain the virus.
As of 9 July, 3671 Tunisians had been arrested for not following the nightly curfew that was put in place in March and ended just a few days ago. Another 1638 Tunisians were arrested for not following the lockdown rules, 22 322 were fined for lockdown infractions, 75 000 driving licences were taken away and 5 700 cars were confiscated.
So, 0.25 % of the Tunisian population had to be curtailed, and this in a country where people are naturally docile and whose lives are governed by religious morals. And there are almost no weapons. Imagine, how many more Rambo US citizens would need to be fined to achieve the same goal. You'd probably need the military to step in.
These kind of actions might seem tough to Western souls but the numbers speak for themselves.
Can the virus be fought only by giving up some of our liberties?
Certainly as part of a comprehensive pandemic plan. Because I prefer to give up my rights for a couple of months in exchange for a life unburdened by the virus thereafter, rather than having to live with the virus for years to come.