Analysis – 4 July 2020

Graphs are now per 100 000 inhabitants, which allows direct visual comparison between countries and states. I also ordered the graphs by declining severity.

Dots and curves in the upper part of the graph mean poor performance and likewise, good performance is found in the lower part. 

As an example for better comparisons, when you look at Germany and France side-by-side, two countries with rather similar courses of the pandemic, the difference in death numbers now catches the eye. Or, another example, you now see that Washington and Germany initially had similar death numbers but the ones in Washington stayed put while the German ones went down. You can also now spot the upward tick in the cumulative cases (blue) in the US, California and Washington. Also better visible: the reason why Brazil's deaths are worse than the ones in the United States.

Brazil: Numbers are up and trends too. Daily cases have crossed the 20 of 100K line. No decline in new cases (or a flattening of the cumulative curve) is in sight.
Outlook: Very Bad

US minus CA,NY,WA: The last three new case numbers were the highest ever recorded and the trend continues. The numbers are at 20 per 100K, which is so high that the expected uptick in two weeks, caused by the 4th of July celebrations, will probably not be visible. Daily deaths are bottoming. The only good news about this number is that it is better than Brazil. Daily positives remain at 8.5%.
Outlook: Very Bad

California: Numbers continue their upward trend with no end in sight. Daily cases are at 20 per 100K and daily deaths have not declined ever. Daily positives grew from 6.8% to 7.1%. 
Outlook: Very Bad

Washington: I know that these really bad numbers are mostly driven by Eastern Washington, but the most populous counties are also growing their numbers. And a sad record: the highest daily case number ever recorded at 10 per 100K. Dim light at the end of the tunnel is that both, new case and death trends are less steep than the day before. The trend for the deaths could actually be solidifying (but here speaks the attachment to my former home state). What is also not completely bad is that daily positives seem to be staying below the 5% mark (now up at 4.8% though).
Outlook: Bad

New York: Daily cases are trending flat now. Maybe this 3 new cases per 100K is the best that the state can achieve but I fear that this is not good enough for a lifting of the restrictions à la Europe. The upside is that daily deaths are coming down into the region of Germany and France and daily positives remain at 1.1%. 
Outlook: Bad With Hope

France: Daily cases have been trending up since the second phase of reopening but the trendline has grown steeper over the last three days with cases just shy of 1 per 100K. This is of concern. Another concern is that testing has not accelerated and daily positives have risen to 2%. 
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

Germany: The peak caused by the severe clustered outbreak at the Tönnies slaughter factory (the biggest in Europe) is over and daily cases are trending down nicely, currently at 0.5 per 100K. If no other big outbreak happens, or lots of tiny ones all over the country (caused by returning holidaymakers) a new trendline could form with the same declination as the one from before reopening (the holy grail). Deaths are very low and so are the daily positive tests (0.6%).  
Outlook: Satisfactory With Hope For Good

Tunisia: Case numbers remain low. No deaths in 16 days.
Outlook: Excellent