Analysis – 17 July 2020

A new daily high for the US, and nowhere looks really good, well, except TN

Brazil: Daily positives have inched up a little, daily positives to 21.6 per 100K but the trendline is still going down. Keeping my fingers crossed that this was not just a dream. Likewise, daily deaths went up to 0.63.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

US minus CA,NY,WA: There was another record high with daily positives now at 22.7 per 100K and trending up for a month now. Daily deaths have hit a 5-week high at 0.3 and trending up. The daily positive rate, though, gave a little to 9.6%. This is a trend I see in WA and CA, too, and is probably caused by increased testing combined with having fewer positives in the tested population. If this trend continues, it would be a good sign. I have little sympathy for this misery because, as Europe has shown, simply wearing a mask and otherwise following the distance rules would have brought the numbers down. A lot of the 18 000 people who have died since mid June could be alive if it were not for American stupidity.
Outlook: Very Bad

California: I am still unsure whether a peak in new positives has been reached. In a few days we will know more. Daily positives gave a little to 21.6 per 100K with the trendline sagging a little. Daily deaths gave a little too, now at 0.3 and trending up. Interestingly, the daily positive rate fell from 7.5 to 7.3 and now 7.1%. California has now, too, passed Brazil in daily positives. A lot of the 4000 people who have died since mid June, when the curve started to climb, could have been alive had people simply worn a mask.
Outlook: Very Bad

Washington: Daily positives have gone up again from 7.2 to 9.7 per 100K, still on a 6-week upward trend, but less steeply than the days before. Daily deaths are trending down at a value of 0.07, which is good. The daily positive rate gave a little, from 6.0% to 5.9% and now to 5.7%, which could be good. Mask wearing should bring Washington to a turning point as it has apparently already done in Yakima county. A lot of the 375 people who have died since the daily positives were going up again could be alive today had people started wearing masks back in May.
Outlook: Bad With A Sliver Of Hope

New York: Daily positives are on an upward trend still, but went down slightly from 7.7 to 4.3 to now 3.95 per 100K. As seen in France and Germany, these values are probably going to oscillate around a relatively flat line, which will be in the vicinity of 3-4 per 100K. Daily death numbers remained at a low 0.06 but the daily positive rate went up a notch to 1.2%. But NY and probably the entire northeast of the US can be lumped together with Germany and France rather than CA, WA and the other states where numbers keep going up.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

France: Daily cases went up again, from 0.8 to 0.66 and now to 0.8 per 100K but still trending down. Just like in New York, they will probably oscillate around a relatively flat line of about 1 per 100K. Daily deaths were halved to a low 0.027, still trending up. The daily positive rate went from 0.9% to 1.1% and the R value is still above 1. 
Outlook: Satisfactory

Germany: Daily cases went from 0.9 to 0.6 and now up again to 0.7 per 100K with the trendline having increased its angle to going almost flat. Like in New York and France, daily case numbers will probably oscillate around a relatively flat line of around 0.5 per 100K. Daily deaths remained far below 0.01 (it is actually 0.0048). The daily positive rate was 0.6% and the R value is below one.
Outlook: Good

Tunisia: Daily cases went down from 0.11 to 0.07 per 100K. Just like in New York, France and Germany, daily case numbers will oscillate, but at such a low level that one can only make out an upper limit. Daily deaths remained 0 for 29 days. The daily positives went up a notch to 1.6%.
Outlook: Excellent But Waiting