Some of the previous good trend is continuing. But some is not.
Brazil: Daily case numbers made a second jump downwards and the trendline became much less steep. Cases are down to 10 per 100K. This is one day longer than the usual weekend drop, so I am more inclined to call it real. Daily deaths are still between 0.3 and 0.6 per 100K and continue their slight downward trend. Of cause, the big grain of salt is the accuracy of the numbers.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: Although there was a slight drop for a third day in a row, daily cases remain at 13 per 100K. This could still be the weekend drop but we shall see tomorrow. But maybe the new measures taken in some of the most badly hit states are taking shape. Deaths are clearly trending down now.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: My prediction from yesterday was wronged by a steep increase in daily cases to now 29 per 100K. But there is an explanation: Los Angeles county had paused data processing over the weekend and yesterday's numbers were low because they were incomplete. Maybe related to this, daily deaths are the lowest they have been in 3 months, and it could be an outlier. Not surprisingly, daily positives are up from 6.8% to 7.5%.
Outlook: Very Bad
Washington: The trends have not changed from yesterday's analysis although daily case numbers went up to 8.5 per 100K. There is a similar pattern a week back, so this could be the weekend trend, too. It could also be the outbreak in UW's Greek Row in Seattle. Death numbers are trending down with the usual three-week trendline and if you look at the last three months, there is an overall downward trend too, which is encouraging. Daily positives crossed 5% (now at 5.3%), reflecting the rise in daily case numbers.
Outlook: Bad
New York: The daily cases are trending flat and the numbers remain at 2.7 per 100K. Daily deaths are low and continuing to fall and daily positives remain at 1.1%. I am still scratching my head about the dichotomy between these numbers.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
France: Numbers are being reported again after the officials' weekend slumber. The trendlines, which required some smoothing due to lack of data on some days, have not changed over the weekend (which is, by the way, not the calendar weekend but shifted by 1-3 days). Daily cases have risen to 2.1 per 100K and daily deaths remain low with room to drop. I am not sure what to make out of this. Is it the beginning of a second wave? Do the numbers want to go flat like they did in New York?
Outlook: Satisfactory With Big Concern
Germany: Daily cases are showing a nice downward trend, currently slightly up at 0.47 per 100K. Deaths are very low (0.01 per 100K) and trending down. The daily positives are 0.6%, although they are a from 4 days ago and thus getting old. With bad news from many countries who had thought that the pandemic was behind them and they are now presented with an increase in numbers (such as Israel and Palestine) and news about local lockdowns, I have the impression that Germans don't trust the calm and would not be surprised of another storm.
Outlook: Good
Tunisia: Case numbers remain low. No deaths in 19 days. New cases are at 0.1 per 100K.
Outlook: Excellent
I have bitched about France a lot because they seem to not be able to get their numbers right. Which is not justified because Washington State had some issues too and now Los Angeles County decided they needed a break. I suspect there are many more such data reporting issues and I know for sure that some ups and downs in my curves were caused by incomplete data. I know that they are not completely accurate, also because I have given up on re-writing the data every day going several weeks back because a case's entry was switched from 'reporting date' to 'infection date', which can be many days earlier. There are quite a few data aggregating services out there and I admire these people for their meticulous and sometimes painful work.
While individual numbers might be incorrect, this does, in most cases, not affect the overall shape of the curves I am presenting. By squinting your eyes, your brain will automatically do its own extrapolation of the dots in my graphs. And this is all I intended.