There is some really good, a lot of good in the bad and a country in a state of denial.
Brazil: Daily case numbers made a big jump downwards and the trendline became much less steep. Cases are at 12 per 100K. If you look at the last two weeks though, daily cases had a kind of striated appearance, going down for four days before jumping up again. Which reflects reduced reporting during the weekends. If this downward trend continues for two additional days, I am willing to be cheerful. Daily deaths seem to oscillate between 0.3 and 0.6 per 100K with a slight downward trend. While this is hopeful, these numbers are too high. Testing data seem to be available only every two weeks and when available, I extrapolate the missing days between the dates, which, given the large difference in days, does only produce an approximation. Testing numbers are in the ballpark of Tunisia.
Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: The US, too, saw a daily case drop to 13 per 100K. Just like with Brazil, this might be the usual weekend effect because if you look at the daily case numbers from one week back, you see a similar pattern. If numbers go down for another 2-3 days, I am happy to call this a real downward trend. Deaths are clearly trending down though. In a country as fragmented as the US, and I mean this politically but it manifests physically in the county data, predictions are hard to make.
Outlook: Very Bad
California: Here, too, daily case numbers have come down, now at 14 per 100K. But here, this trend could be real. At least, it does not resemble a prior pattern. The 3-week trend is still going upward but if the numbers continue to go down, the trendline will follow. Daily dead oscillate between 0.05 and 0.28 per 100K and past numbers do not indicate a trend down, even slightly so. But if cases were to decline for good, death numbers will follow after a delay. Daily positives gave a little from 7.0% to 6.8%, which adds to the hopefulness.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily case numbers are down to 6 per 100K. There is a similar pattern a week back, so this could be the weekend trend, too. Death numbers are trending with the usual three-week trendline and if you look at the last three months, there is an overall downward trend too. Daily positives are staying away from the 5% mark but are slightly up (now at 4.7%).
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: Daily cases have fallen from 3.7 to 2.7 per 100K. Daily deaths are low and continuing to fall and daily positives remain at 1.1%. Maybe the low deaths (0.04 per 100K) are indicating that the relatively high case numbers are not a threat? There could also be a new downward trend in the making. We shall see in a few days.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
France: The health officials must have smoked something good because they stated that "the virus was going down in their country." Here is a screenshot of their web page. The numbers, of course, tell a different story and I want to reply: "A virus knoweth no weekend." From now on, there will be not only a huge gap in the reporting of daily tests but also a two- or three day gap in the case and death numbers.
Outlook (based on 3 July numbers): Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: The 18-day upward trend is broken and the new threndline is resembling the one from before reopening. Daily cases are currently at 0.26 per 100K. Deaths are very low (0.05 per 100K) and so are the daily positive tests (0.6% from 3 days ago). But let's not think that we are in a safe haven: Renewed lockdowns are not too far from us and alcohol consumption in bars seems to be the new hotspot, at least at our British cousins.
Outlook: Good
Tunisia: Case numbers remain low. No deaths in 18 days.
Outlook: Excellent
One word on the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR): I have been following these numbers for a while now and it becomes apparent that in regions that fare well, the CFR declines only slowly, whereas in the countries with poor performance, the CFR comes down a lot. France is in its own league but here too, the CFR comes down only slowly.
Anything Trump says is for one and only one purpose: to have him reelected. I usually do not comment on what people say who have nothing to say because they know little. But since it is being discussed out there, here is my simple explanation.
Trump said that 99% of all Covid-19 cases are "totally harmless." The US' case fatality ratio is currently at 4.6%. This means that 4.6% of all people who contracted Covid-19 have died (which most people would not consider harmless). If we assume that a number as high as 35% of all infected do not show symptoms, and if these people were included in the CFR, it would go down to 3%. So, 100% - 3% = 97% — Trump was wrong. Even by a very favourable (for him) estimate. For people who live in a world where everything is simple, this explanation should suffice.
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In yesterday's analysis, I mentioned that I would take the train or the bus again if daily numbers were to come down even more. And I failed to mention why because I thought it was evident. Here is an explanation:
Some people in this village think I am paranoid because I am more cautious than they are, particularly indoors. Which is understandable because there had been no infections reported from an indoors exposure in our region. And one could therefore deduce that indoors exposure poses little risk. In reality though, there is no indoor transmission of the virus because there are very very few people with the virus in our region.
Yesterday, scientists have warned the WHO about downplaying the dangers from indoor aerosols, which can be found anywhere from buses to trains to bars and meeting rooms. In regions with high case numbers, such as parts of the US, the risk from contracting the virus while at a bar or something else indoors is still very real.