The trends continue
Brazil: Daily case numbers have been down two days in a row, now at 18 per 100K, and the trendline has lost a little of its steepness. It is too early to say whether this is a turning point. If so, the deaths should follow 1-2 weeks later. So far, they have tested 0.7%, of the population, which is pretty low. No daily positive values are available (but I am still looking).
Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: The latest new case number is lower than the previous one breaking the three day run. The cases are at 16 per 100K. Daily deaths are slightly trending down but in the long run, I expect them to go up again. Daily positives up at 8.7%, way above the 5% threshold for reopening. Of course, there are huge county-to-county differences. The pandemic has moved from the cities where it once started to the country and the South is hit particularly hard as seen in this very useful map.
Outlook: Very Bad
California: Numbers continue their upward trend with no end in sight. Daily cases are lower than the previous day, at 16 per 100K and daily deaths are declining a little. Daily positives gave a little from 7.1% to 7.0%. Los Angeles county is still the highest but it is no longer the driver, as you can see in this map.
Outlook: Very Bad
Washington: Nothing has changed and the best you can say about these numbers is that there was not another new peak value. New cases are at 8 per 100K. Death numbers are trending more towards going flat. The current slow decline is probably what to expect for the next weeks. Daily positives are staying away from the 5% mark (now at 4.6%).
Outlook: Bad
New York: Daily cases are trending slightly up now at 3.7 new cases per 100K. Daily deaths are continuing their trend into the safe region and daily positives remain at 1.1%, which is all very good. I am still not convinced that that that plateau of new cases is sustainable.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
France: There were no new case and death numbers reported for the 4th of July and thus the picture looks the same as the day before. With cases just shy of 1 per 100K, I am curious to see where the new number will go. When numbers are 1000 on one day and 0 on the next, they will need to be smoothed because otherwise the trendlines will jump around even more than they did in past weeks.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: The peak has passed and daily cases are trending down nicely, currently at 0.3 per 100K. Deaths are very low and so are the daily positive tests (0.6%). By the end of the month, the numbers will be low enough to stop worrying about contracting the disease when on a train.
Outlook: Good
Tunisia: Case numbers remain low. No deaths in 17 days.
Outlook: Excellent
Other than my utter disbelief about what is unfolding in parts of the US, and my asking what happened to that grand nation that in past sent out their helpers to support other peoples in need during a pandemic and now cannot even help its own people; apart form the absolute disrespect for human lives that comes from the likes of Bolsonaro and the people who stand behind them; and thinking of the good news in my country of residence, I will again go swimming to forget about this disaster for a while.