Today it feels like as if I were observing a car running over a red light and, in slow motion, I see a big, fast truck approaching the car…
Brazil: The good trend from the last days was a mere mirage. Daily cases are at 22 per 100K and rising. Daily death trend is moving up towards going flat. (For comparison, total cases: 700 per 100K but probably a lot more)
Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily case numbers continue their steep trend upwards, currently at 16 per 100K. The daily death trendline is moving up towards being flat. Daily positives are at 8.2% and Trump wants the biggest fireworks for 4th of July ever. If one could guarantee that only his feeble-minded disciples were to get sick, I would not really care. But a virus knows no affiliation. (For comparison, total cases: 780 per 100K)
Outlook: Very Bad
California: Daily cases numbers are at a record high (25 per 100K) and the death trendline is going flat, up from days before. Daily positives are also up at 6.4%. I do not understand why officials are only tentatively discussing measures that Europe would have already implemented a month ago. These numbers shout for drastic measures. (For comparison, total cases: 580 per 100K)
Outlook: Very Bad
New York: Daily cases have the same trend as the day before, with a continued trajectory away from the nice decline from before reopening. They are now at 3 per 100K. Deaths are declining nicely and daily positives remain at 1.1%. (For comparison, total cases: 1750 per 100K, one of the highest in the world)
Outlook: Bad With Hope
Washington: It pains me to see that daily cases are undeniably pointing up, and steeply so, having reached 9 per 100K. Deaths are in the double digits for the second day and trending up; and daily positives are approaching 5% again after having lingered at 3%. Here are my 2 ¢: When you say that not wearing a mask is your personal freedom, then it is my personal freedom to kick you in the arse. (For comparison, total cases: 410 per 100K)
Outlook: Bad
Germany: The case trend continues its erratic behaviour from previous days, currently at around 0.6 per 100K. This is too high. The trend should ideally look like the one from before reopening. I hear of more localised surges not far from where I live, which is of concern. Deaths are low and so are the daily positive tests (0.7%). But Germany is falling behind on the testing. (For comparison, total cases: 240 per 100K)
Outlook: Satisfactory
France: Daily cases are at 1.3 per 100K and trending up. Not good. Deaths are in the double digits for the third day. I am concerned. New testing data should come tomorrow. (For comparison, total cases: 250 per 100K)
Outlook: Satisfactory
Tunisia: Daily cases are well below 0.04 per 100K and no new deaths in two weeks, which is great. But daily positives have climbed from 0.5 to 0.8% in a week, which is caused by fewer tests being done. (For comparison, total cases: 10 per 100K, which is low but almost double that of China — if we can believe their numbers)
Outlook: Excellent
To put these numbers in perspective and to understand which numbers the above countries should aim for or could have had if they had acted just a month earlier:
Vietnam: 355 total cases (0.36 per 100K) and still no deaths. New cases are below 0.001 per 100K.
Taiwan: 488 total cases (1.9 per 100K), 7 total deaths. New cases are below 0.001 per 100K
New Zealand: 1180 total cases (22.4 per 100K), 22 total deaths. New cases are at 0.04 per 100K.
China: 84 816 total cases (5.9 per 100K), 4641 total deaths. New cases are at 0.02 per 100K.
For every Covid-19 case there could be as many as ten people who carry the virus but have no symptoms (NBC, according to the CDC). Some of these people could be infectious.
Recent data from Vò, a Northern Italian village of 3400, confirms that asymptomatic carriers could pose a severe issue. They also confirmed earlier results by Icelandic researchers that children may be less susceptible to infections than adults.
Early in the pandemic, carriers were mostly older (above 40). But now, the virus is increasingly passed on by the younger generation. Of these, the teens and early twenties are more carefree and prone to not following protection rules. Partially because they know that it is very unlikely for them to get sick. They could thus spread the virus among their peers, in school classes for instance, keeping it “alive” and thus, as a group, will have a relatively high infectious potential. The virus could jump over to the older generation if there was unprotected contact and unlike the clustered outbreaks in meat processing plants or prisons, this could happen anywhere and anytime.
In consequence, everybody who is in unprotected contact with young people (but probably not children under 10) could be icreasingly at risk. Teachers for instance. This is particularly true for countries with people who are unwilling or unable to follow protection rules. The US in particular.
Here in Europe, where people have been better at following protection rules, there is probably a greater danger than our young ones: the holidaymakers and other travellers. These return to villages where people have let their guards down because there had been no new cases in weeks. And could spark renewed outbreaks.