Today is a mixed bag but, every region has something good to report.
Brazil: It looks as if daily cases would want to decline. Currently the remain around the 15 per 100K mark. Deaths are up from the day before but still trending down a little. It would be great to have testing data and hence daily positives but my data aggregator does not have them. Outlook: Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily numbers still going up, soon in the fourth week and at 15 per 100K, but trendline has come down slightly since the day before, which gives hope. Daily deaths are still declining but trend is weaker. Daily positives have gone up from 8.1% to 8.2%, which is not good. Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Daily cases still far too high at 16 per 100K but the trendline is declining from the day before. Daily death trend is pointing down and declining from the day before, which is great. Daily positives remain at 5.9%, which means that increased testing, which outperforms the US trend, still results in the same percentage of cases (a watershed moment is when increased testing results in fewer positives), which is not so good. Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: Daily cases are trending down still, currently at 2.6 per 100K but still much less steeply so than a month ago. Daily deaths have increased sharply but this could be an outlier. Daily positives remain at 1.1%, which is great. Outlook: Satisfying Trending To Not So Good
Washington: The zero death of the day before was an outlier because we have 10 new deaths now, but this is not worrisome. What it of concern is that the daily cases remain too high, now at 6 per 100K, although the daily positives have sunk below 5%, which means that they are picking up fewer positives with their increased testing, which is good. Outlook: Not Completely Bad With Hope
Germany: Daily cases show nicely how the 21-day and 14-day trend are starting to converge. I am curious to see where and when this will happen. So far, it looks as if it were to be far below the 0.7 per 100K line. Outlook: Good Trending Better
France: It is now even more apparent that the daily cases are trending towards becoming flat at around 0.7 per 100K. But there is no indication that they will go further down. Likewise, deaths are in the double digits for the second day. Daily positives are lagging behind because of France’s (and Germany’s) delayed reporting but the last time they reported them, they were 1.3% and thus above Germany’s 1.1 %. The milk still good but could become sour if we don’t drink it. Outlook: Good With Caution
Tunisia: Nothing has changed. . Outlook: Excellent
Now is the time for discussion about a pan-European pandemic plan. EU leaders should feel encouraged by similar plans in countries who have successfully dealt with Covid-19, such as Vietnam, Taiwan and even Iceland. Of course, small countries, in particular those on islands, have it much easier. But the next pandemic could be in the making and any concerted answer is better than the European Chaos of this spring. One example: we know now that regional responses trump country-wide ones and thus the EU commission should spearhead the controlled closing of affected regions instead of waiting for entire countries to close themselves off like they did.