Analysis – Saturday, 12 November 2022

Neither Fish Nor Flesh
Incidence will possibly oscillate at a too-high level for months to come

In Europe and North America, although Corona incidence will remain high, more than 90% of the population are not going to be sick from it and hence hospitalisations remain manageable. Death numbers have probably dropped as low as they can and will oscillate for the coming months.

Too bad if you belong to the 5% with more than mild symptoms (see comparison to Polio below).

If you do, you might want to migrate to a third world country, because their corona numbers are definitely lower and will probably remain that way. You will have to deal with other infectious diseases though and you might die of something that you would never die off when living in one of the rich countries, such as really bad air, but chances that you will get Post-Covid Syndrome (Long Covid) are probably minimal.

Summary (reported numbers)

 Daily incidence, ITU occupancy and deaths are 7-day averages per 100K people based on reported numbers.
Actual numbers might be (considerably) higher. Arrows = tendency.
Mortality projections are from 21 October until late January 2023.
 See the help page for explanations.

 Daily
Incidence
Daily
ITU /
ICU
Daily
Deaths
Daily
Pos. Rate
Cumulative
Excess 
Death  
Mortality
Projection  
USA11.1 →0.8 →0.082 ↘︎08.7% ↗︎14.0%
WA State08.7 ↗︎0.4 →0.081 ↘︎06.6% ↘︎10.8%↗︎
France37.8 →1.5 →0.101 →21.1% ↘︎10.7%↘︎
Germany43.4 ↓1.9 ↘︎0.170 →42.8% →06.9%↘︎
Tunisia00.1 ↘︎   0.004 ↗︎04.0% ↑14.8%↗︎

Comparing Covid-19 to Polio

With the current variants of coronavirus, we see less than 10% of the infections develop severe disease and much less than 5% with long-term consequence. The latter were data for the BA.1 variant. Data for the current BA.5 variants are not available but are expected to be much lower.

The prevailing sentiment in the world is that the pandemic is over and that there are more severe issues to deal with. The responsibility about whether or not to protect themselves is placed on the individual and that is the end of the story.

The numbers for a poliovirus infection look shockingly similar to those above: 96% develop no or mild symptoms, 1-5% develop meningitis and "only" 0.1-0.5% develop the paralysis that we usually associate with Polio. 

The prevailing sentiment in the world about Polio is that it is so dangerous that the WHO attempted to eradicate it (but the anti-vaxxers are making it return right now). This is possible because, unlike coronavirus, immunity to poliovirus lasts for a lifetime. Coronavirus cannot be eradicated through vaccination.

Why is Corona taken less seriously than Polio?

Well, first, because the percent bad outcome is slightly higher for Polio, but also because permanently paralysed people look worse than people who are too weak to climb stairs and who might recover one day anyway.


© 2023 Praying Mantis Studios    //    Declaration of Data Protection (in German)