Analysis – Saturday, 16 July 2022

Numbers Remain High
Incidence is at a high level and increasing or steady, mortality seems to remain stable

Bye-bye Britain. Your numbers have been rather spotty lately and it was too cumbersome to re-calculate and smooth what you reported. 
Likewise, I am no longer reporting the test-positive rate because (a) testing data are extremely spotty and (b) the rate is way too high (above 10%) in all regions.

While incidences in Europe are higher than in the US, the IHME estimates them to be at about the same level. 

Hospitalisations are rising and while not critical, combined with a shortage of health personnel, could lead to another difficult situation this autumn.

Mortalities seem to plateau at around 0.1 per 100 000 (±10%), which is just a little too high to be acceptable.

Summary

 Daily incidence, ICU occupancy and deaths are 7-day averages per 100K people based on reported numbers.
Actual numbers might be (considerably) higher. Arrows = tendency.
Daily death projections are from 10 June and therefore inaccurate
They assume the continuation of current measures up to late September 2022.
 See the help page for explanations.

 Daily
Incidence
Daily
ITU
Daily
Deaths
Daily
Pos. Rate
Cumulative
Excess 
Death  
USA039.1 ↗︎1.2 ↗︎0.125 ↗︎21.3% 15.2%
WA State034.2 ↗︎1.2 ↗︎0.154 ↗︎19.5% ↑11.2%
France119.5 ↘︎1.6 ↗︎0.085 ↗︎33.4% ↗︎11.6%
Germany115.3 ↗︎1.4 ↗︎0.115 ↗︎51.3%  07.2%
Tunisia025.2 ↑0.2  0.079 ↑52.4% ↑16.6%

No Remarks

No remarks this week. I am trying to dodge the virus by strictly masking indoors and avoid risky situations. But that is not always possible. Many of my friends, who are normally careful, have got it. And when I ask there was just this one time when they let down their guards.


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