The US-CDC recommends masks only in the orange areas.
The New Normal Is Approaching But Patience Is The Key
Premature relaxation of the masking and distancing rules will prolong the pandemic
In an attempt to avoid a collapse of the health care system, distancing and mask mandates were never dropped in Germany, as was the case in neighbouring nations. And thus Germany remains one of the last Western European nations with high incidence that is only now peaking, while hospitalisations and deaths have been kept relatively low and stable throughout winter.
A major factor playing against Germany is its relatively low vaccination rate (compared to its neighbours), particularly among the oldest segment of the population. Thus, a premature relaxation of the rules would result in the premature death of many older Germans. Nations with better vaccination of that age group have already relaxed the rules and have thus allowed the spread of the virus among the less vulnerable, which also raised the natural immunity in the population, which in turn acts as a buffer against the spread of the virus.
In other Western nations (and Tunisia), the three main indicators are declining, with mortality having been the last one to do so (most recently in Tunisia and France, and Spain is currently peaking).
Vaccination has come to a crawl almost everywhere as has the testing for the virus. While this is expected in nations with a high vaccination rate, in other nations though, this is not too good, but will not greatly alter the course of the three main indicators.
With declining incidence, test positive rates are coming down too (the USA is now below 10%), which is expected and good.
To prepare for the coming winter wave, nations with a high reluctance towards vaccination should prepare legislation to make vaccination mandatory for all or at least for health care workers and the vulnerable population. Failure to do so might give these nations an economic disadvantage. I am looking at you, German-speaking nations and Republican-leaning US states.
The war in the Ukraine will delay recovery in the Eastern European nations.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 020.1 ↓ | 3.3 ↘︎ | 0.536 ↘︎ | 09.1 % ↓ | 16.7 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 035.9 ↘︎ | 2.3 ↘︎ | 0.437 ↘︎ | 11.8 % | ↘︎ | |
| Britain | 054.8 ↘︎ | 0.5 ↘︎ | 0.179 ↘︎ | 05.3 % → | 12.9 % | ↘︎ |
| France | 094.1 ↓ | 4.1 ↘︎ | 0.322 ↘︎ | 22.4 % ↓ | 12.7 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 195.0 ↘︎ | 2.9 → | 0.245 ↗︎ | 52.9 % ↗︎ | 07.4 % | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 019.4 ↘︎ | 1.9 ↘︎ | 0.394 ↘︎ | 28.5 % ↓ | 19.0 % | ↘︎ |
There was a recent piece on CNN about Covid-19 killing more people now than during most of the pandemic. There is a nice graph for it too, which I took from the article. This article is nothing surprising if you have followed the numbers. The pandemic is thus far from over, although the CDC recommends that masks can be dropped in most of the US (based on the main indicators, including hospitalisations and deaths).
Of particular interest is the graph about US mortality by vaccination status, which reminds us that of the still too many people dying, it is predominantly those without vaccination.
Countries with a lax vaccination morale might suffer more in autumn when case numbers are expected to surge again.
