Analysis – Saturday, 1 May 2021

Our enemy is the virus and – ourselves

We've come a long way and made a lot of progress. But those who are impatient and speed ahead, will come in last.

The vaccination fatigue has now reached the USA, albeit at half of Israel's vaccination numbers, which is dangerous. If the number of vaccinated U.S. people is not pushed up soon, everybody else will be held hostage – and the pandemic will not be ending this year. But maybe one will be able to live with a continuously low number of infections and deaths. Maybe the U.S. will become something akin to Washington State: never reaching really low numbers, with interspersed flare-ups.

India's Modi is doing the Bolsonaro by holding political rallies with thousands of unmasked supporters. India has brought the recent super-surge to itself by being even more complacent than other countries. Scientists have done their part, too, by declaring that they have no idea why the numbers are so low (before this re-surge). But the solution is very simple:
The virus is a master in hiding, particularly in young populations. It infects and spreads slowly without making itself known. And once it has reached a critical mass, wham!, it strikes again, seemingly coming out of nowhere.

India can happen in other countries too. Maybe not as badly but it can. We must not let our guards down.

Summary

Daily infections and deaths are 7-day averages per 100K people. Arrows = tendency.
Daily death projections from 27 April until late July assume the continuation of current measures.
Explanations of the numbers are found on the help page.

 Daily Infections
Daily Deaths
Daily Pos. Rate
R value
Average
Excess
Death
Projection
Brazil28.7 ↘︎1.180 ↘︎ 0.97 →24.8%→↘︎
USA15.4 ↘︎0.219 ↘︎05.8% ↑0.87 →17.3%→↘︎
WA State17.7 →0.122 →06.7% →0.98 ↓09.3% ↗︎↘︎
France37.4 ↘︎0.430 →09.2% ↘︎0.89↘︎16.3%↘︎
Sweden49.9 ↘︎0.177 →11.5% ↓1.01 ↘︎12.9%↘︎
Britain03.3 →0.029 ↓00.2% →0.95 ↗︎17.5%
Germany22.1 ↗︎0.276 ↗︎11.1% ↘︎0.87 ↓07.3%↗︎↘︎
Rhein-Neckar20.6 ↗︎0.098 ↗︎  06.2% 
Tunisia15.4 ↗︎0.676 ↗︎26.8% ↘︎1.09 ↓12.8%↗︎↘︎
New Zealand00.0 →0.000 →00.5% ↗︎0.90 ↗︎00.1%
India26.4 ↗︎0.231 ↑21.4% ↑1.37 ↓03.0%↗︎↘︎

Remarks On 20th Century Germany

Germany has undoubtedly one of the best PR agencies when it comes to selling its modern, green technology-oriented image to the world. In reality, however, stubborn Germany remains deeply rooted in the late 20th century.

Not only do local health authorities use fax machines to report their Corona numbers to the central agency, appointments for vaccination are done in the sprit of the Kaiser's bureaucracy.

To get an appointment at one of the vaccination centres, you go to the web page, select your state and the vaccination centre and then you are directed to a virtual waiting room (picture 1). Sometimes you are forwarded to the next screen within seconds, sometimes it takes several minutes, and sometimes you simply give up. If you are lucky and get forwarded to the next screen, you are told that there are no appointments available because there is not enough vaccine (picture 2) and you are asked to start the procedure from the beginning.

But it gets better. Once you have an appointment, you are directed to download several PDFs, which you need to print and fill out, only to be filed away by the vax centres and never to be looked at.


It saddens me that Germany has fallen so much behind other countries. In a modern country, the process would be all in a smartphone app and everything would be a smooth ride. You type in your data once and there would be no need to choose a state or a vaccination centre. No need to print this same information on a sheet of dead tree. The app would notify you of appointments and you could choose or change them as you go. At the appointment, you would show your smartphone or a printed-out barcode (for those without smartphones) and you'd be ready for the jab.

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