Analysis – Saturday, 6 March 2021

Premature relaxation of lockdown measures could be a pyrrhic victory
Aggressive variants are spreading from the breeding grounds in countries that had not acted in the early stages of the pandemic.

As mentioned last week, with increased vaccination of the population at most risk of dying, fatalities will no longer be a good indicator of the severity of the pandemic. (Note: the incidence is imperfect for comparisons between regions because of testing and measuring differences) The number of people in hospitals, particularly in ICUs, could prove to be a second best indicator. I have therefore included ICU occupancy numbers where available (5 countries on my list) and I shall follow them for some time to see whether they can be dependable.

In most Western countries, incidences are on the rise or going flat after a period of decline. This is spurred by the presence of more aggressive variants. On the other hand, mortalities are declining due to the vaccinations. This is, however, not true for California, where incidence is dropping like a stone and fatalities are stalling. For the U.S. as a whole, incidence is falling moderately, which is probably driven by California's drop (which constitutes ~12% of the U.S. population). Taking out California, the incidence is actually plateauing.

Some U.S. states are abandoning measures of personal protection, including Texas, which has even abolished the mask mandate. The data do not support this and the collective outcry from epidemiologists should be testimony to it. Hopefully the pace of vaccination will catch up with the new cases and the new variants.

France is trying local lockdowns to undo the damage caused by vacationers during the winter holidays. In the end, only the vaccine can save a population showing restrained co-operation. Provided, of course, that none of the new variants will become resistant to the vaccines.

Britain is testing, testing, testing. They are about to catch up with New York State's testing marathon and as a consequence, their test positive rate is the lowest in Europe. And their incidence is dropping like never seen before. Germany wants to introduce self tests and testing centres near schools, which is certainly great but the same tests could have prevented the "second wave" had they been introduced 9 months earlier (we had the technology for years).

Tunisia is still waiting for the vaccine and, given the state of corruption, it is likely that the rich will be served first and then there won't be enough for the rest. It is therefore remarkable that the country manages to get their death rate down.

Brazil is a tragedy and the president is doing everything in his power to exacerbate the situation. The country is thus also becoming a breeding ground for new, more dangerous variants that might circumvent the current vaccines.