France moved up by two steps
France's numbers warrant it moving up between Washington and New York. Their numbers will come down eventually but the president is even threatening a renewed lockdown. Irrespective of these ups and downs and speculations about a vaccine, the virus is here to stay for years to come and we better get used to it.
Brazil's daily infections rose a little from 22.4 to 23 per 100K but keep trending down. Daily deaths fell from 0.600 to 0.405. Both numbers seem to be declining, but immensely slowly and undecidedly so. The map of new infections since Wednesday showed promise. On top of that, contrary to all other countries and states in my blog, Brazil's numbers are predicted to fall for the next two months.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
U.S. minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections increased from 11.6 to 14.9 per 100K, while keeping the trendline pointing downward, and daily deaths remained almost the same at 0.305. The risk map showed three states going for the worse and none for the better. Case numbers are coming down but only slowly so and death numbers remain too high with little movement into the right direction.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California continues its downward trend although daily infections increased a little from 11.31 to 13.5 per 100K. Daily deaths jumped from 0.266 to 0.481, which was one of the biggest increases in weeks, but hopefully an outlier. The R-value remained below 1 and the risk map saw two counties going for the worse and a whopping nine going for the better.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington's numbers are going into the weekend with a fanfare: daily infections increased from 4.7 to 7.1 per 100K and daily deaths from 0.053 to 0.131, which should come down more as cases subside. Both trendlines remained pointing downward. The R-value was the lowest in weeks with 0.86 but the risk map showed counties going for better and for worse.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
France's daily infections have reached the highest point since the first peak in early April, going from 4.9 to 11 per 100K. Daily deaths went up a little from 0.024 to 0.030 and trending up less steeply too. The daily positive rate continued its 4-week increase to now 3.9%, as did the R-value , which rose to 1.38. The risk map is darker than on Wednesday with 6x more Départements going for the worse than going for the better. France shares its fate with Spain but Italy, the first European country to report Covid-19 cases, sees a milder increase, akin to the one in Germany.
Outlook: Bad Going Worse
New York remains on the right track and is now placed together with European countries. The only difference is that Germany and the UK dropped their infection numbers after the first peak only to rise again to New York levels. Daily infections remain in the same, slowly declining, corridor with 3.7 per 100K. Daily death numbers grew from 0.010 to 0.015, putting it in the same league as the UK, Germany and Tunisia. The risk map remained a mixed bag with New York City still remainining staunchly yellow.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Hope
United Kingdom: Daily infections increased a little from 1.7 to 1.9 per 100K, trending up a tad more steeply. Daily deaths fell from the very high 0.024 to a more reasonable 0.013. The number of new infections is predicted to remain low and to rise again in October.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany seems to have bucked the trend of marching straight to a second peak. Daily infections fell from 2.2 to 1.8 per 100K and trending up less steeply (the one-month trend looks even better). If Germans hold on to themselves, daily numbers could remain at the current level or even fall. The daily death number fell from a very low 0.004 to 0.001, owed to good hospital care, a higher number of young and asymptomatic among the infected. While the R-value went slightly above 1, the risk map showed a lot more counties going for the good, particularly in the east and the north. Bavaria has been hardest hit from the onset and still struggling most. Of concern: Germany is one of few European countries allowing mass group gatherings. This is a big reason why numbers are predicted to go up in October with a vengeance.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Tunisia is coming off its high as well. Daily infections fell from 1.50 to 1.18 per 100K and trending up a little less steeply. The two-week trend hints at a peak soon to be left behind. That is, if everything continues as is. New cases are aggregated in the same three regions as before (Capital agglomeration, Gabès with El Hamma and Le Kéf). The beginning of the school year will be pushed out by a few weeks but there will be no cancellations. With one daily death, fatalities were securely seated in the low range again, with now 0.009. The daily positive rate fell to 5.3%, which is expected. As with any region adding more cases than deaths, the Case Fatality Ratio is sinking rapidly.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
One of the hallmarks of dictatorial regimes is the control of information. The US has, rightfully perhaps, accused China of not disclosing the real infection numbers and we know that, early in the pandemic, Russia labeled the fatalities as having died from pneumonia to hide them from statistics. In both cases, the goal might have been to show the world that their country is doing better than those other stupid countries that don't know what they are doing.
Now the US is doing the same. Trump has repeatedly tried to reduce the number of tests performed, in an ill-informed attempt to reduce the number of cases. It now looks as if his administration had directed the CDC to change its recommendations about testing of people who had been exposed to the virus but who have no symptoms. In the past, these people would have been tested but these new guidelines would not longer require them to do so.
I am surprised about the silence in the usual press, vulgo: CNN, but the influential American Medical Association and the HIV Medicine Association criticised this move. Apparently, Anthony Fauci, who had been the President's advisor on Covid-19 (or still is, one does not know), had undergone surgery and was on the operating table while the new guidelines had been announced. The difference to how Stalin would have handed this matter: Fauci woke up from his anesthesia.