There is no big change from the trend seen on prior days, except Washington where the upward trend seems to have solidified.
Brazil: Both, daily cases and deaths are lower than the day before. I hope that this is the beginning of a trend. Or it is just the normal fluctuation. Bolsonaro was seen wearing a mask. Maybe Trump should be ordered to do the same. Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: Both, daily cases and deaths are lower than the day before and daily deaths are trending downwards. But daily cases are still trending steeply upwards, maybe even approaching Brazil’s 15 per 100K. Outlook: Very Bad
California: Cases are still rising but deaths seem to have dodged their upward trend and might settle below 50 per day. Outlook: Bad with hope
New York: Daily deaths in the single digits for the first time! Daily case trendline is unchanged, meaning that is still heading for a plateau at around 3 per 100K, which is far too high. Outlook: Satisfying
Washington: Daily cases have been trending upwards for a month now and daily positives remain above 5 %. So either they are unable to contain their clustered outbreaks in Eastern Washington or the new mask-wearing rules have not caught on yet. Daily deaths have been in the single digits for six days, which is great. Outlook: Not completely bad but getting worse
Germany: Case numbers are coming down nicely, with the three-week trend moving downward and the 12-week trend (we had 12 days of cases going up) approaching the trendline from before reopening. I am curious whether daily numbers will be going flat and at which level or if they go down again. Deaths are in the single digits, which is excellent. Outlook: Good
France: Where are thyne numbers? No update for the third day, but Hopkins adds 36 000 new cases during these missing days, which I am adding to the graph until the French sort out their numbers. And hence the trend is going through the roof. Once this mess is solved, I still expect the daily numbers to go flat at around 0.7 per 100K. Deaths are in the single digits, which could be excellent if the numbers can be trusted. Outlook: Good
Tunisia: I have been asked if the numbers can be trusted because they just look too good. I know the director of the Pasteur Institute in Tunis and we have talked about public health initiatives, in particular concerning breast cancer, which was my field of study during that time. I had the impression that for such a small country with not much money to waste, public health ranks very highly on the government agenda. And where they have no means to intervene, they still know about their issues, be they local, such as certain cancers in the South, or country-wide. Below I talk about the issue at large. Outlook: Excellent
On Africa and other countries we have looked down upon: Well, As I said at the very beginning of this blog, the Western nations have shown nothing but arrogance. First about China, then about Italy, followed by pitying Africa for a feared ordeal that was based on the West's own numbers, which only reflected its inability to stop the merry-go-round of more production, more pollution, more speed. And when Africa's numbers did not fit their expectations, they claimed that there should be something wrong with them. True, Africa's numbers might not be very accurate, but some Western nations are struggling with them as well. But most importantly, Africa, with the exception of the "Western" South Africa, has done pretty well. Because they don't travel as much, because they are used to pandemics and epidemics and know to respond to them. Because the Chinese and European disaster gave them a lead time for a co-ordinated lockdown. Maybe the West should be willing to learn from Africa.
On mask wearing (for our friends in the US, for whom it is all "new"):
Chances of infection outdoors at distances over 2 metres are extremely low. This would apply to sitting at a café or walking in a park. For closer distances at a time period of more than a couple of minutes, wearing of a mask is strongly recommended. So when you are walking in a park and you pass somebody at a distance below 2 m, even a jogger who breathes more heavily, there is a very low risk of infection because the moment of closeness is very short. Indoors, however, aerosols can linger for hours, depending on air circulation, and therefore the risk of infection is much inreased. Here, wearing a mask reduces the aerosols you put into the air and you thus protect the ones around you. Because you can never be sure that you don't carry the virus. After all, it looks as if for every case there are ten others who are also positive but have no symptoms.