Analysis – Saturday, 3 December

Winter Wave Building
And hospitals are currently burdened by non-Covid infections

France is already there, Germany is ramping up, USA too and Washington State is still hesitating about having more cases. Hospitals are currently burdened with respiratory infections from viruses other than SARS-CoV-2, particularly in children, and they might soon see more adults with Covid-19. While intensive treatment units will probably not be overwhelmed, the increasing number of sick staff could put a strain on hospitals and other critical infrastructure.

With coronavirus testing trickling to a mere 100 people a day, Tunisia's numbers are now definitely unreliable. The only indicator of an increase in Covid cases will be oral communication by people working in health care. But without testing, even that could only show that there are more people with some kind of a respiratory infection.

Summary (reported numbers)

 Daily incidence, ITU occupancy and deaths are 7-day averages per 100K people based on reported numbers.
Actual numbers might be (considerably) higher. Arrows = tendency.
Mortality projections are from 17 November until late February 2023.
 See the help page for explanations.

 Daily
Incidence
Daily
ITU /
ICU
Daily
Deaths
Daily
Pos. Rate
Cumulative
Excess 
Death  
Mortality
Projection  
USA17.2 ↗︎0.9 ↗︎0.092 ↘︎11.0% ↑13.8%↗︎
WA State10.6 ↗︎0.4 ↗︎0.092 →07.2% ↘︎10.6%↗︎
France59.9 ↑1.4 ↗︎0.101 ↘︎28.0% ↑10.6%
Germany31.8 ↗︎1.1 ↘︎0.121 ↘︎27.2% ↘︎06.9%↗︎
Tunisia00.1 ↘︎   0.001 ↘︎05.9%  14.5%↗︎

No Remarks

No remarks this week because there is no new scientific development nor is there any pressing issue to talk about, other than, of course, the warning that Covid-19 is here to stay and that the current wave could still be bad because of the sheer number of sick people.

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